Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? The structural outlook explained

Ethereum is trading close to its April 2025 low, and many traders are asking the same question: is this where ETH finally turns around, or are we stuck in a deeper bear market for the rest of the year? To answer that, it helps to look at two charts together: ETH priced in Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) and ETH priced in dollars (ETH/USD).

Why the ETH/BTC chart matters

Before looking at Ethereum’s dollar price, it’s crucial to understand how it’s performing against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC pair shows whether Ethereum is outperforming or lagging behind BTC, and that relative strength often drives where capital flows in the crypto market.

On the higher time frame, ETH/BTC has been in a clear downtrend since its 2021 peak. From that high, ETH/BTC has dropped roughly 70–75%. If you zoom out even further to the 2017 high, you could argue that Ethereum has not started a sustained period of outperformance against Bitcoin since then — only shorter phases where ETH briefly did better.

A long sideways range or a deeper decline?

Structurally, the ETH/BTC chart can be interpreted in two main ways:

1. A large sideways triangle (range)

In this scenario, ETH/BTC has been moving sideways for years in a big triangle pattern. Triangles are often made up of five overlapping waves, labeled A–B–C–D–E. The idea here is:

• The big move up into 2017 was an A wave.
• The years since then form a complex B wave, taking shape as a triangle.
• Within that triangle, the market could currently be in the D wave, with a possible bounce ahead.

For this triangle idea to stay valid, ETH/BTC needs to hold a series of higher lows and lower highs. That means the market should find support soon and start another bounce.

2. A larger B-wave pullback (more bearish structure)

Even if the triangle fails, the broader idea is still that ETH/BTC is in a big corrective B wave. In that case, the structure would be different, but the message is similar: Ethereum has been in a long corrective phase versus Bitcoin, not in a strong, sustained uptrend.

Key ETH/BTC support and resistance levels

On the ETH/BTC chart, there are a few critical levels to watch:

Major supports:

• April 2025 low around 0.0177 BTC
• 2019 low around 0.015 BTC

If ETH/BTC breaks below these lows, it would strongly challenge the triangle idea and favor a deeper B-wave decline. The long-term corrective picture would remain, but the structure would turn more bearish.

Current support zone:

• 0.020–0.026 BTC is a key support area where a bounce could start.

The market has already reached this zone, which means Ethereum is in a region where a relief rally versus Bitcoin is at least possible. However, there is no confirmed local bottom yet.

Resistance to unlock a bigger bounce:

• 0.028 BTC – a first structural level to reclaim.
• 0.031–0.039 BTC – a broader red resistance zone and the area around a key descending trendline.

Only a sustained move above the 0.031–0.039 BTC zone would really open the door to a larger rally in ETH/BTC. Until then, Bitcoin remains in the driver’s seat.

What this means for Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Right now, the ETH/BTC chart clearly shows that Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum. That’s not unusual in a bear market: capital tends to consolidate into BTC first, while altcoins lag behind. This is consistent with recent price action, where ETH has dropped harder than BTC during sell-offs and bounced less during rallies.

There may be a period where ETH starts to outperform again from the current support zone, especially if ETH/BTC can reclaim 0.028 BTC and then push into the 0.031–0.039 BTC resistance. But until the structure confirms that kind of move, any outperformance is only a possibility, not a base case.

If you want to dive deeper into why ETH has been weaker lately, it’s worth looking at how large holders are behaving. Our guide on why whales are moving ETH and what it means for Ethereum investors explores that side of the story.

ETH/USD: how low could Ethereum go?

With ETH lagging BTC, its dollar chart (ETH/USD) naturally looks weaker too. A useful comparison is the 2021–2022 bear market. From the 2022 high to the 2022 low, Ethereum fell about 75%. The current drop from the 2025 high is not quite as deep yet, but it’s following a similar pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Based on the current structure, the decline is being tracked as an ABC correction, where:

• A wave: the first leg down from the high.
• B wave: a countertrend bounce.
• C wave: a final leg lower, usually made up of five smaller waves.

Within that bigger C wave, the market is expected to eventually find support in a broad orange zone between roughly $650 and $1,000. That doesn’t mean price must hit the very bottom of that range, but it’s a realistic target area if the correction continues.

Important ETH/USD support and resistance zones

On the higher time frame, the main levels to watch are:

Major resistance:

• $1,817–$2,223 – this is the key resistance band for the current corrective bounce (wave 2) within the larger downtrend.

As long as ETH trades below this zone, the broader bearish structure remains intact and lower prices remain likely over time.

Major supports:

• ~$1,400 – around the April low and the next structural support on the way down.
• $1,000 – a realistic medium-term target if the C wave continues to unfold.
• $650–$1,000 – the wider orange support zone where a major low could eventually form.

Time cycles: why weakness could last into Q4

Beyond price levels, time-based models can help estimate when major highs and lows are likely to form. A 240-day dominant cycle currently appears to be driving Ethereum’s price action, similar to what can be seen in other large-cap cryptos.

This cycle suggested a top around May, which lined up well with how ETH traded. Looking forward, it points to a potential low forming around September. That doesn’t imply a straight-line crash; instead, it suggests a choppy, corrective environment with rallies and pullbacks, but an overall downward or sideways bias into late Q3 or early Q4.

In other words, the medium-term outlook still favors weakness and consolidation rather than a new sustained bull run. That aligns with the Elliott Wave structure pointing to a continuing C-wave decline.

Short-term ETH price structure: what to watch now

On the lower time frame, Ethereum appears to be working on a corrective bounce, labeled as a wave 2 within the larger downtrend. This bounce is expected to unfold in an ABC pattern, which typically means three legs: up, down, then up again.

Short-term support:

• $1,620–$1,657 – micro support zone. As long as ETH holds this area, it can attempt a more direct push higher.
• If this zone breaks, the odds increase that the current pullback is extending, and focus shifts to:
• $1,547 – lower boundary of a larger range and the next key support.

Short-term resistance:

• $1,682–$1,740 – near-term resistance zone.
• $1,820 and above – ideal target for the wave 2 bounce if bulls can sustain momentum.

For the bullish short-term scenario to gain credibility, ETH should ideally form a clear five-wave move up within this bounce and reach at least into the $1,820+ region. If price instead grinds sideways or drifts lower, it would support the idea that the corrective structure is not finished and that lower levels may come before any meaningful relief rally.

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin again?

Putting it all together:

• ETH/BTC is still in a long corrective phase, with Bitcoin clearly outperforming since 2021 (and arguably since 2017).
• A bounce in ETH/BTC is possible from the 0.020–0.026 BTC support zone, but it needs confirmation through a break above 0.028 BTC and ideally into 0.031–0.039 BTC.
• ETH/USD is likely still in a larger C-wave decline, with realistic downside targets between $1,400 and $1,000, and a broader support band down to around $650.
• Time cycles suggest that Ethereum could remain in a corrective environment into late Q3 or Q4, even if there are short-term rallies along the way.

So, can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin again? Yes, but the charts suggest that any such phase in the near term is more likely to be a corrective rally within a broader downtrend, not yet the start of a new multi-year ETH supercycle. Traders and investors should stay focused on the key ETH/BTC and ETH/USD levels, watch for confirmation of any bounce, and be realistic about the medium-term risks.

If you’re comparing ETH with other major altcoins in this environment, you may also find our breakdown on whether ADA, ETH, SOL, and XRP can beat the stock market after the dip helpful for building a broader macro view.