How the SpaceX IPO could shake up Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins

The market feels quiet right now, but that calm may not last. With the SpaceX IPO about to launch as the largest public offering in history, both stocks and crypto could be on the verge of a sharp increase in volatility. At the same time, Bitcoin and major altcoins are sitting on key support levels and flashing important technical signals.

Why the SpaceX IPO matters for crypto

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is expected to value the company at over $1.7 trillion, with around $75 billion in capital being raised. That $75 billion has to come from somewhere, and in the short term it may be pulled out of other risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Recent pullbacks in both the stock market and crypto can partly be explained as investors raising cash ahead of this event. If large funds and traders are rotating into SpaceX, that temporarily drains liquidity from other markets.

Once the IPO goes live, two things could happen:

• If SpaceX trades strongly, early investors may take profits and rotate capital back into other assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
• If it disappoints, risk sentiment could weaken further, pressuring both stocks and crypto.

Either way, the size and hype around this IPO make it a likely catalyst for short-term volatility. For more context on how traders are positioning around this event, it’s worth reading why Hyperliquid’s CEO says banks are undervaluing a potential SpaceX IPO.

The stock market backdrop: S&P 500 cooling off

The S&P 500 has recently pulled back, driven in part by a bearish divergence (price making higher highs while momentum indicators weaken). In pre-market trading, the index has started to bounce from recent lows, but the broader picture still shows a market that’s catching its breath after a strong run.

This consolidation in stocks fits with the idea that investors are de-risking and freeing up capital ahead of the SpaceX listing. Because crypto trades like a high-beta tech asset, it tends to amplify these stock market moves—both on the way down and on the way up.

Bitcoin: calm above support, but volatility ahead

Bitcoin has been under pressure in recent weeks, but it’s still holding a crucial support zone around $60,000. While momentum has clearly weakened, several timeframes are flashing signs that the selloff may be losing steam.

Big-picture weekly signal: potential bullish divergence

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is potentially forming a large bullish divergence: price has been making lower lows or moving sideways while the RSI (a momentum indicator) begins to trend higher. This kind of structure last appeared near the end of the 2022 bear market, before the next major recovery.

Because this is a weekly signal, it doesn’t play out overnight. It could take weeks or even a few months to fully confirm and translate into a sustained uptrend. But it’s an important backdrop: even if Bitcoin chops or dips in the short term, the larger structure suggests a major low may be forming over the coming months.

Key Bitcoin levels on the 3-day chart

On the 3-day timeframe, Bitcoin is:

• Bouncing from strong support around $60,000
• Facing resistance near $63,000–$63,200
• Encountering additional resistance in the $66,000–$66,500 area, where previous support has flipped into resistance

The current move looks like a relief bounce after a sharp selloff rather than the start of a full-blown breakout. As long as $60,000 holds, the path of least resistance in the short term leans toward continued consolidation or a modest push higher into those resistance zones.

Short-term pattern: double bottom and oversold relief

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a potential W pattern (double bottom). The neckline of this pattern sits around $63,800. If price can break and close a 4-hour candle above that level and hold it, the pattern would confirm a short-term bullish target around $67,700.

That move would represent roughly a 6% gain from the breakout level. On its own, that’s modest, but for leveraged traders it can be a meaningful opportunity. However, the pattern is not confirmed until price convincingly breaks and holds above $63,800. A failed breakout that falls back below the neckline would invalidate the setup.

Supporting this idea of a relief move, the RSI on the 12-hour and 3-day charts recently hit oversold levels and is now starting to recover. Oversold conditions don’t guarantee a rally, but they often precede at least a pause or bounce after heavy selling.

Liquidation heat map: targets above and below

Bitcoin’s liquidation heat map shows clusters of leveraged positions that could be triggered if price moves into those areas. Right now, notable liquidity sits around:

• $58,900 (downside)
• $60,000–$60,200 (downside)
• $64,000–$64,200 (upside)

When both upside and downside liquidity build up, it often means the market will eventually sweep both sides. One plausible path is a short-term move higher to clear the liquidity above (in line with the potential double bottom), followed by a later move lower to take out the downside levels.

Funding rates: sentiment turning again

Funding rates on perpetual futures recently flipped negative as Bitcoin hit local lows. That showed traders were piling into short positions right at support—often a setup for a short squeeze and a bounce. That bounce is now playing out, and funding is drifting back toward positive territory.

As funding turns positive, it suggests longs are becoming more aggressive again, which can limit upside and even trigger another small pullback. This is why the first attempt to break above $63,800 might fail before a more decisive move. The SpaceX IPO could easily act as the catalyst that decides which way the next big move goes.

What this means for Ethereum

Ethereum is telling a similar story to Bitcoin, but with its own key levels. On the 3-day chart, ETH is holding a major support zone between $1,500 and $1,600. This area has acted as a floor recently, and the RSI is still near oversold, suggesting the market needs more time to reset after the latest drop.

The base case in the coming days and weeks is:

• This support zone continues to hold as a local low
• ETH either grinds slightly higher or chops sideways
• A larger trend reversal would likely require Bitcoin to confirm strength first

In the very short term, Ethereum is likely to mirror Bitcoin’s moves. If BTC breaks its neckline and pushes toward $67,000+, ETH can be expected to follow with a similar percentage move. If Bitcoin stalls or rejects at resistance, ETH will probably struggle too.

For a broader perspective on whether recent downside may have put Bitcoin—and by extension Ethereum—back into an attractive accumulation zone, see why Bitcoin’s dip has pushed it back into the buy zone.

XRP: holding a line, but downside risk remains

XRP’s weekly chart still shows a broader bearish trend that hasn’t fully reversed yet. Price is hovering around a key level near $0.13, occasionally dipping below and then reclaiming it, but not yet confirming a clean breakdown or a solid recovery.

If XRP decisively loses this area and fails to get back above it, the next major downside targets to watch are:

• Around $0.09–$0.10
• Potentially as low as $0.07 if selling accelerates

In the very near term, though, XRP is likely to behave like most large-cap altcoins: some relief or sideways chop as long as Bitcoin holds its support, but no confirmed trend reversal yet.

Solana: bullish divergence still in play

On the 3-day chart, Solana is showing a clear bullish divergence: price has made lower lows while the RSI has formed higher lows. This is often an early sign that bearish momentum is fading and that a relief move or consolidation phase is coming.

There was a risk that this divergence could be invalidated if price broke sharply lower, but so far the structure is intact. Over the next one to two weeks, the most likely scenarios are:

• Choppy sideways price action as the market digests recent losses
• A modest bullish relief rally, rather than a huge trend-changing breakout

As with other majors, Solana’s short-term direction will be heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s next move and overall risk sentiment around the SpaceX IPO.

Chainlink: relief rally meeting resistance

Chainlink is also playing out a 3-day bullish divergence, which has already produced a relief bounce. However, price is now pressing into a well-defined resistance zone between roughly $7.90 and $8.50.

In the near term, expect:

• Continued tests of this resistance band
• Ongoing struggle to break and hold above it on the first few attempts

This kind of behavior is typical after a strong bounce from oversold conditions. Bulls need time to absorb selling pressure from traders taking profits into resistance before any sustained move higher can develop.

Bitcoin dominance: slight edge to BTC over altcoins

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap) is bouncing from support around 58–58.5%. This suggests that, on average, Bitcoin may slightly outperform major altcoins in the short term.

The moves in dominance are relatively small, though, which means most large-cap altcoins are still likely to move broadly in line with Bitcoin. Watching BTC’s key levels and patterns remains the most efficient way to gauge the overall crypto market direction.

What to watch in the days ahead

The combination of a record-breaking SpaceX IPO, oversold signals across crypto, and heavy liquidity pockets above and below current prices sets the stage for an eventful few days. Here are the main things to keep an eye on:

• Bitcoin’s $60,000 support: as long as this holds, relief and sideways action remain the base case.
• The $63,800 neckline: a clean 4-hour close and hold above this level would confirm the double bottom target near $67,700.
• Funding rates: if they swing too positive too quickly, it can limit upside and increase the odds of a pullback.
• SpaceX IPO reaction: strong performance could eventually send capital back into crypto; a disappointment could weigh on risk assets.

In the bigger picture, the market still looks like it’s carving out a major low rather than starting a fresh bull leg immediately. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the volatility around the IPO, while longer-term participants may see this period as a time to watch key levels and let the weekly structures fully develop.