Where bitcoin is in its current 4‑year cycle

Bitcoin moves in cycles. Prices surge, euphoria sets in, then a long and painful comedown follows. This pattern has repeated often enough that many traders talk about a “4‑year cycle” in bitcoin. The big question right now is simple: where are we in that cycle today?

What the bitcoin 4‑year cycle really means

The idea of a 4‑year cycle doesn’t mean bitcoin is somehow broken or predictable to the dollar. It simply reflects repeated human behavior, liquidity conditions, and broader macro trends that tend to play out over similar timeframes.

Importantly, the 4‑year cycle is mostly about when market bottoms tend to form, not the exact timing or size of the tops. Historically, bitcoin has seen major lows and highs roughly every four years, even if the exact prices and dates shift slightly each time.

This isn’t unique to crypto. Traditional markets like the S&P 500 also show recurring cycles, with significant lows appearing at fairly regular intervals. That hasn’t stopped index investing from being one of the best long‑term strategies. In the same way, the existence of a 4‑year cycle doesn’t make bitcoin a bad investment; it just means it goes through predictable phases of greed and fear.

How past cycles have behaved

Looking back, each bitcoin cycle can be measured from the market bottom (the cycle low) to the next major top and then back down again. When you align past cycles by their lows, something striking appears: the timing is incredibly consistent.

In the last three cycles:

• The major tops all occurred around 1,050–1,070 days after the prior bottom.
• The major bottoms formed around 1,430–1,440 days after the previous bottom.

Despite constant claims that “this time is different,” bitcoin has repeatedly topped and bottomed in almost the same time windows. The exact path, volatility, and narratives change, but the broad rhythm has stayed similar.

For a deeper dive into how these cycles typically end, see our guide on understanding the final stage of the Bitcoin 4‑year cycle.

Where we are now when measured from the last bottom

If you measure the current cycle from the last major bottom, bitcoin is currently around day 1,354 of a pattern that has historically run about 1,430–1,440 days from low to low.

That places us roughly in the final 5–10% of the bear market phase if history rhymes again. In other words, we’re likely closer to the end of the downtrend than the beginning, but not necessarily at the exact bottom yet.

Past cycles suggest that the final low often forms in a window of a few months rather than on a single predictable date. In previous cycles, bottoms have appeared between late Q3 and late Q4:

• One cycle bottomed in January.
• The next in December.
• The last one in November.

Following that rough progression, a bottom sometime between late September and mid‑December would be consistent with previous behavior.

What the current bear market looks like from the top

Another way to look at the cycle is to measure from the last major peak. This approach is less reliable for timing, but it helps compare how severe each bear market has been.

When you line up the current drawdown against the previous three bear markets, the current one is less extreme so far. A big reason is that the last top wasn’t driven by wild retail euphoria or a massive altcoin mania, so there’s been less panic selling on the way down.

On average, past bear markets have bottomed around day 400 from the peak. The current market is roughly around day 300 from the last top, which would put us about three‑quarters of the way through an “average” bear market if that pattern holds.

Comparing this cycle to halvings and midterm years

Some traders prefer to anchor bitcoin’s behavior to the halving events, when the block reward is cut in half. When you compare cycles from one halving to the next, a consistent pattern emerges: the period after a post‑halving peak is usually weak, with bitcoin either trending down or moving sideways near the lows for many months.

There’s also a strong seasonal element tied to traditional markets. Historically, bitcoin has struggled during midterm years in the U.S. political cycle, even when the stock market itself has held up reasonably well or made new highs. For example, in 2018 the S&P 500 fell only about 6% for the year, while bitcoin dropped more than 70%.

Today, we’re once again in a midterm year, and bitcoin is again underperforming equities. That might feel strange if you’re watching the stock market grind higher, but it’s actually very typical behavior for bitcoin in this part of its cycle.

Why this cycle looks a lot like 2019

From a macro perspective, the closest historical comparison to the current environment is 2019. In that year:

• Bitcoin topped a few months before quantitative tightening ended.
• The Federal Reserve delivered three rate cuts.
• There was no major rotation into altcoins after the bitcoin peak.
• Bitcoin topped on apathy, not mania: social interest was fading and bitcoin dominance was rising.

The recent cycle shows many of the same traits. Bitcoin peaked without a huge altcoin season, macro policy was tightening, and sentiment was more tired than euphoric. The subsequent downtrend has lined up neatly with the expected 4‑year cycle bear market window.

This suggests that bitcoin’s 4‑year rhythm and the broader business cycle aren’t competing explanations; they’re layered on top of each other. Bitcoin’s internal cycle is playing out inside a macro environment that can either amplify or mute certain moves.

Have we seen true capitulation yet?

In some past cycles, the final bottom came with a dramatic price capitulation: a sharp, violent drop that flushed out remaining weak hands. This was clearly visible in late 2018 and again during the 2020 pandemic crash.

The current bear market has been different so far. Rather than a single brutal flush, we’ve seen more of a time‑based capitulation—a long, grinding downtrend that wears out investors slowly. Historically, that kind of process still tends to take about a year from the peak to the final low.

That’s another reason to think we’re in the back third of the bear market, but not necessarily through it completely.

What this phase means for long‑term investors

If your time horizon is only a few months, bitcoin’s volatility in this part of the cycle can be brutal. Prices can still make new lows, and short‑term timing is extremely hard.

For long‑term investors, though, late‑bear‑market phases have historically been where many of the best opportunities appear. Accumulating gradually as the cycle matures—often through a dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) strategy—has tended to work well for those willing to hold through the next full cycle.

That doesn’t mean you should rush in or ignore risk. It means:

• Have a clear plan for how much you want to allocate and over what timeframe.
• Accept that prices can still go lower even after you start buying.
• Focus on a multi‑year horizon rather than trying to nail the exact bottom.

Past cycles show that investors who began accumulating in the second half of the bear market often saw their entries look poor for a few months, then increasingly attractive as the next bull market unfolded. For more detail on how deep the current drop could go and where a final low might form, see our analysis on where bitcoin is likely to bottom and how bad this drop can get.

Why “this time is different” is usually wrong

Every cycle has its own story. In one, it’s ICOs. In another, it’s DeFi or NFTs. In the latest, it was institutional adoption and macro liquidity. Because the narratives change, it’s tempting to believe the underlying cycle has changed too.

But when you strip away the headlines and look at the charts—cycle timing, drawdowns, moving averages, and behavior around midterm years—bitcoin is once again doing what it has always done:

• Lose its 50‑week moving average.
• Drift down toward the 100‑week and then the 200‑week moving average.
• Spend roughly a year in a grinding bear market before forming a new base.

So far, this cycle has followed that script closely. Until the market clearly proves otherwise, the simplest explanation is that the 4‑year pattern is still intact.

Final thoughts: nearing the end, not at the beginning

Putting it all together, multiple ways of measuring the cycle—days from the last bottom, days from the last top, behavior around halvings, and typical midterm‑year performance—are all pointing to the same conclusion:

• We are likely in the final 20–30% of the current bear market.
• A major bottom sometime between late Q3 and late Q4 would be consistent with past cycles.
• This phase is uncomfortable, but historically it’s where long‑term opportunities begin to appear.

There are no guarantees, and bitcoin can always surprise. But if history is any guide, the market is closer to the end of this downtrend than the beginning. For patient investors with a multi‑year outlook, that’s exactly when it makes sense to pay attention.