Why the hardest part of this Bitcoin bear market might be over

Bitcoin is deep in another bear market, but the hardest part of the cycle may already be behind us. By comparing today’s price action to previous bear markets, we can narrow the next big moves down to just a couple of clear scenarios—and know exactly what to watch for.

Why June often brings a major Bitcoin low

In the last two Bitcoin bear markets, a major low formed around the middle of June. It wasn’t always the final bottom of the cycle, but it did mark a key turning point before a relief rally.

Here’s what happened in those cycles:

2018: Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average (200DMA), tried to reclaim it, was rejected, and then set a major low around June 23. From there, price bounced in a relief rally back toward the 200DMA.

2022: The pattern repeated. Bitcoin lost the 200DMA, retested and rejected it, then put in a major low around June 18. Again, that low led to a relief rally.

Today, Bitcoin has once more dropped below the 200DMA, retested it from below, and moved down into mid-June. That’s why this period is being watched closely as a potential major low—though not necessarily the final bottom of the entire bear market.

The 52-week bear market pattern

Another recurring feature of Bitcoin bear markets is time: they tend to last around 52 weeks from peak to final bottom.

In 2022, Bitcoin broke below its June low almost exactly at week 52 from the peak. From the cycle top to taking out that June low took about 48 weeks, and the final low formed within that 52-week window.

This timing pattern suggests a simple roadmap for the current cycle: a major low around June, followed by a final low or capitulation closer to October, roughly 52 weeks from the peak.

The big question: 2018-style crash or 2022-style dip?

If June is a major low but not the final one, the key question is what kind of October bottom we get. Historical price action gives us two main templates:

2022-style: A slightly lower low than June—painful, but controlled. After that, Bitcoin began its next bull run.

2018-style: A much deeper capitulation below the June low, a brutal flush-out that cleared the way for the next cycle.

Both are possible, but several technical signals make the milder 2022-style scenario more likely this time.

Why a 2022-style bottom looks more likely

The charts are flashing a few important signs that lean toward a smaller, more controlled October low rather than a huge 2018-style crash.

1. Weekly bullish divergence is already here

In every past Bitcoin bear market, the final lows have been accompanied by weekly bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). That means:

• Price makes lower lows
• RSI makes higher lows

That pattern shows selling pressure is weakening even as price dips, often signaling a bottoming process.

Right now, Bitcoin already has weekly bullish divergence into the June low. That’s earlier than in previous cycles, which suggests the market may be closer to stabilizing than it looks.

In a 2022-style scenario, Bitcoin could still make a slightly lower low in October while RSI forms a higher low, keeping that bullish divergence intact.

In a 2018-style deep capitulation, RSI would likely plunge well below its previous lows, destroying the divergence and mirroring the 2018 bottom, which did not have weekly bullish divergence. That’s one reason the massive crash scenario looks less likely.

2. The weekly RSI is already oversold

Another key difference from 2018 is the RSI itself. At the June 2018 low, the weekly RSI wasn’t even oversold—it was still near the 50 level. The real washout came later.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin has already hit oversold levels on the weekly RSI back in February. That suggests a lot of the heavy selling pressure has already been absorbed earlier in the bear market, again pointing more toward a controlled final low than a huge, fresh collapse.

3. The 300-week moving average as a magnet

The 300-week moving average (300WMA) has acted like a long-term “magnet” for Bitcoin in bear markets. In previous cycles, major bottoms have formed right around this line:

• 2015 bear market low
• 2020 COVID crash
• 2022 FTX crash (price slightly undercut the 300WMA)

Right now, the 300WMA is sitting around the mid-$50,000s, roughly near $54,000. A 2022-style October low that undercuts June slightly could line up almost perfectly with that level, which also matches a strong weekly support zone from 2024.

That confluence—long-term moving average plus historical support—makes a controlled dip into the low-to-mid $50Ks a very logical place for a final bottom.

4. Bearish divergence on stablecoin dominance

Stablecoin dominance (the share of total crypto market cap held in stablecoins) can also offer clues. When dominance rises, it often means traders are sitting in stablecoins, waiting on the sidelines. When it falls, money is usually flowing back into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Right now, the weekly stablecoin dominance chart is showing bearish divergence:

• Price (dominance) is making higher highs
• RSI is making lower highs

This is the opposite of Bitcoin’s setup and suggests stablecoin dominance may be nearing exhaustion. Over time, that could mean capital starts rotating back into Bitcoin and other crypto assets, supporting the idea that we’re closer to the end of the bear than the beginning.

The 200-day moving average: the ultimate bull/bear switch

While the October timing and historical patterns are useful, there’s one level that cuts through all the noise: the 200-day moving average.

In every past bear market, the moment Bitcoin reclaimed and held above the 200DMA signaled that the bottom was in—or extremely close—and that the next bull phase was underway.

Here’s how it played out historically:

• 2011–2012: After a capitulation below the 200DMA, Bitcoin eventually reclaimed it, consolidated above, and then launched into a new bull run.

• 2014–2015: Price spent a long time under the 200DMA, with multiple failed attempts to break through. Once Bitcoin finally broke above and held, any buys in that region turned out to be excellent entries for the next cycle, even though price briefly revisited the lows.

• 2018: Bitcoin dropped below the 200DMA, set its June low, and later capitulated. Once it reclaimed and consolidated above the 200DMA, the bear market was effectively over.

• 2022: After losing the 200DMA and setting the June low, Bitcoin eventually broke back above and held it. That move confirmed the FTX-driven bottom and kicked off the next bull leg.

In the current cycle, the 200DMA is around $77,000 and slowly drifting lower as long as price stays beneath it. That line is the cleanest invalidation of any bearish thesis.

If Bitcoin can close multiple days above the 200DMA and consolidate there, history says the bottom is in or very close, and the bull market is back.

Two simple scenarios for the rest of the bear market

Putting all of this together, the market can be boiled down to two straightforward scenarios. You don’t need to predict which one will happen—you just need to know what to do if either one plays out.

Scenario 1: Final low in October (the classic 52-week pattern)

In this scenario, Bitcoin:

• Sets a major low in June
• Enjoys a relief rally into July–August
• Rolls over for a final low around early October (about 52 weeks from the peak)

That October low could look like:

• A 2022-style slightly lower low than June, likely near the 300WMA and key support around the mid-$50Ks
• Or, less likely based on current signals, a 2018-style deep capitulation

Either way, October becomes the main window to watch for a final, cycle-defining bottom.

Scenario 2: The bottom is already in, confirmed by the 200DMA

In the second scenario, Bitcoin’s June low ends up being the actual cycle bottom. Price begins to recover, and at some point:

• The 200DMA continues to drift lower
• Bitcoin breaks above it
• Price consolidates and holds above the 200DMA

Once that happens, the message is clear: the bear market is over. Historically, every time Bitcoin has reclaimed and held the 200DMA after a bear phase, it has marked the start of a new bull trend.

Even if price briefly dips afterward (as it did in 2015), buying in that region has always been rewarded over the remainder of the cycle.

How to stay sane in “no man’s land”

Right now, Bitcoin is in what many traders call “no man’s land”: below the 200DMA, but after a long drawdown and with early bullish signals starting to appear. This is often the most frustrating part of the cycle—choppy, uncertain, and full of conflicting opinions.

The key is to keep things simple and focus on clear, objective triggers rather than emotions or headlines.

Two practical approaches:

1. Wait for October: If you believe in the 52-week bear market pattern, you can simply wait for a potential final capitulation around early October, especially if price moves toward the 300WMA and prior support zones.

2. Wait for the 200DMA reclaim: If you prefer confirmation over catching the exact bottom, watch for multiple daily closes and consolidation above the 200DMA. Historically, that has been a powerful signal that the bottom is in and the bull market is resuming.

Either way, you’re not forced to guess. You can let the market show its hand and react accordingly.

Positioning for the next Bitcoin cycle

For long-term investors, this phase is about preparation, not prediction. Decide in advance how you’ll respond to each scenario:

• If Bitcoin spikes down into October near the 300WMA and prior support, is that where you start scaling in more aggressively?
• If Bitcoin breaks and holds above the 200DMA earlier than expected, are you ready to flip bullish and treat that as your green light?

Combining these technical signals with broader macro and adoption trends—like institutional interest and potential catalysts such as major tech IPOs—can help you build a more complete picture. For example, some analysts expect events like a future SpaceX IPO to quietly supercharge Bitcoin demand, while others are watching how big banks are quietly positioning themselves in crypto.

But even without those narratives, the chart alone gives you a simple framework: watch June for a major low, watch October for a potential final low, and watch the 200-day moving average as the ultimate bull/bear switch.

The emotional part of the bear market may be close to ending. From here, patience and clear rules matter more than ever.