Is Solana at $64 a buy, or could it drop to $30 first?

Solana has been through a brutal downtrend, but many long-term investors are starting to quietly build positions again. With SOL trading around the mid-$60s, the big questions are simple: is this a good buy zone, or could we still see a move down to $40 or even $30 before the next major bull run?

Why Solana still matters in this market

Despite the price pain, Solana remains one of the strongest layer-1 blockchains in the market. In terms of total value locked (TVL), trading volume, and transaction counts on platforms like DeFiLlama, Solana consistently sits among the top three chains.

Ethereum is still the dominant smart contract platform, and BNB Chain often ranks highly as well. But Solana has carved out a powerful position, especially in high-throughput use cases like meme coins, on-chain trading, and fast DeFi applications.

Many people now associate Solana mainly with meme coins, but that’s a misconception. In the 2021 bull market, Solana reached close to an $80 billion market cap before meme coins on the chain really took off. Back then, most meme activity was on Ethereum and BNB. Solana’s current meme coin dominance is more of a proof point: if a chain can handle the insane volume and congestion that meme seasons bring, it’s likely robust enough for serious financial applications too.

Not just hype: fundamentals and staying power

Solana is designed as a high-speed, scalable layer-1 blockchain. It’s backed by major players in the crypto space and has a thriving ecosystem of DeFi, NFTs, infrastructure projects, and consumer apps.

For long-term holders, one of the biggest advantages is psychological: Solana is a high-conviction asset for many investors. Instead of constantly chasing low-cap gambles, they’d rather accumulate a blue-chip altcoin that has a strong chance of still being relevant in 3–5 years.

If you want more context on Solana’s recent volatility and on-chain data, it’s worth checking out this deeper look at why Solana crashed and what the data really says.

Solana’s brutal downtrend: nine red months and counting

On the higher timeframes, Solana’s chart looks rough. Zooming out to the monthly candles shows a stunning stretch of pain: nine consecutive red months in a row. For a top-tier cryptocurrency, that kind of sustained selling is rare and emotionally exhausting for holders.

But extended periods of red candles often signal that a cycle is getting closer to exhaustion. Markets can’t trend down forever. Eventually, sellers run out of steam, and a new base forms.

On the weekly chart, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is already very oversold, which suggests SOL is in a historically cheap zone. However, on the daily chart, there’s still no clear bullish divergence yet, and the RSI recently made a new low. That leaves room for more downside before a definitive bottom is in.

Why Bitcoin still sets the tone

Even if you’re focused on altcoins like Solana, Bitcoin still drives the broader crypto cycle. For many investors, the strategy is simple: use Bitcoin’s macro levels to time when to start buying high-conviction altcoins, rather than obsessing over every wiggle on individual altcoin charts.

Right now, Bitcoin is trading around its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically been a powerful long-term support zone. In past cycles, buying near the 200-week MA has often turned out to be an excellent long-term entry, even if price briefly dipped below it afterward.

In 2022, Bitcoin did fall under the 200-week MA, but anyone who bought around that level (around $20,000) still ended up with a strong entry in the following bull run. The key takeaway: this area has typically marked the late stages of bear markets, not the early ones.

If Bitcoin is indeed closer to the end of its bear phase than the beginning, then accumulating strong altcoins like Solana near these levels can be a reasonable long-term strategy. For a broader look at this approach, you can read this guide on buying Bitcoin and altcoins during major dips.

Key Solana price levels: $64, $40, and the deeper support zone

From its all-time high around $258, Solana has already been “absolutely decimated” in this cycle. On the long-term Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the last major low to the all-time high, SOL has already tagged and fallen slightly below the 0.786 fib level, which sat around the high $60s.

Here are the main zones to watch:

1. Current zone: around $60–$70

This area lines up with the 0.786 fib level and marks a region where some long-term investors are already dollar-cost averaging (DCA-ing). It’s clearly cheaper than the euphoric highs, but it’s not guaranteed to be the final bottom.

2. Next major support: around $40–$50

The 0.886 fib level sits near the low $40s, and there’s a cluster of historical price action in the $40–$50 region. Because Solana rocketed upward so quickly in 2023 and 2024, it didn’t build many strong consolidation zones on the way up. That means there isn’t a lot of solid support between roughly $50 and the low $20s.

If the market sees a “max capitulation” event, a drop into the $40s (or slightly below) is very possible.

3. Extreme downside: $20–$30

This is a more bearish scenario, but it can’t be ruled out. In the previous bear market, Solana fell around 97% from its all-time high, dropping from about $258 to roughly $7. A similar percentage drop this time would be extreme, but an 80–90% drawdown is not unheard of for major altcoins in deep bear markets.

That’s why some investors keep extra stablecoins on the side: they’re willing to buy at $60–$70, but they also want dry powder in case SOL revisits the $30–$40 range or even the low $20s.

How a DCA strategy can help with Solana

Trying to pick the exact bottom in any altcoin is incredibly difficult. If it were easy, almost everyone would be a crypto millionaire. Instead of aiming for perfection, many long-term investors focus on a disciplined dollar-cost averaging strategy.

Here’s how that might look for Solana:

• Start buying a first tranche around the current zone (for example, $60–$70).

• If price drops to $40–$50, add more aggressively, effectively lowering your average entry price.

• If Solana falls into the $20–$30 range, consider doubling or tripling your position size (if your risk tolerance allows), which can drastically reduce your overall average cost.

Yes, you might be down 30–40% on your initial buys if the price keeps falling. But if you consistently buy lower levels, your blended average entry can end up far below your first purchase. Over a multi-year holding period, that can make the early buys at higher prices much less important.

Is Solana a potential 10x from here?

From a long-term perspective, some investors see Solana as a potential 10x (or more) opportunity over the next major cycle. SOL has already proven it can reach an $80 billion market cap without the current level of meme and DeFi activity it enjoys today. If the next bull run brings even more adoption, higher on-chain volume, and broader mainstream use, new all-time highs are possible.

Targets like $400 are often described as “conservative” in this view, with more aggressive projections pointing toward a potential $1,000 SOL in the distant future. Of course, these are speculative scenarios, not guarantees.

The key idea is this: if you believe Solana will survive, grow, and thrive over the next 3–5 years, then buying during a deep bear market—when sentiment is terrible and charts look ugly—can be where the real long-term gains are made.

Risk, conviction, and sleeping well at night

None of this removes the risk. Solana could still drop another 50% or more from current levels. Crypto remains one of the most volatile asset classes in the world.

However, for investors who:

• Understand Solana’s technology and ecosystem,

• Are willing to hold for several years, and

• Use a DCA strategy instead of betting everything on one perfect entry,

accumulating SOL during this bear phase can offer peace of mind. Rather than constantly chasing short-term trades or low-cap gambles, they focus on building a position in a high-quality project they believe will still be here in the next cycle.

As always, it’s crucial to do your own research, size positions according to your risk tolerance, and remember that nothing in crypto is guaranteed—especially price targets.

Bottom line

Solana around $64 is undeniably cheaper than it was near its all-time highs, and on many metrics it looks oversold. But that doesn’t mean it can’t go lower. A realistic plan might assume that SOL could still revisit the $40s or even the $20–$30 range before a true bottom is in.

If you believe in Solana’s long-term future, a patient, staged DCA strategy—combined with an understanding of Bitcoin’s macro trends—can help you navigate the volatility and position yourself for the next major bull run, whenever it arrives.