Bitcoin holders: why this might be the end of the bear market

Is Bitcoin’s bear phase finally over, or is this just another cruel fake-out? Recent macro news, on-chain data, and market behavior from big players are all starting to point in the same direction: the worst of this downturn may already be behind us.

Macro backdrop: peace talks, oil, and risk assets

One of the biggest drivers for risk assets like Bitcoin is macro stability. According to recent reports, the United States and Iran appear to be moving toward a formal peace deal, with a signing reportedly planned in Switzerland. While details around enriched uranium, sanctions, and frozen assets still need to be finalized, both sides have signaled an immediate halt to military operations.

Markets like this kind of clarity. A reduction in geopolitical tension tends to support global trade, energy flows, and risk-on behavior in stocks and crypto. If oil supply concerns ease and global shipping normalizes, central banks may have more room to cut rates or at least avoid further tightening, which historically benefits speculative assets like Bitcoin.

In other words, a less volatile geopolitical environment plus a friendlier interest-rate outlook is exactly the kind of backdrop that can fuel a new leg higher in crypto.

Big buyers and analysts are calling a Bitcoin bottom

While retail traders debate whether the bottom is in, some large players are already acting as if it is.

High-profile Bitcoin advocates continue to accumulate, signaling long-term conviction despite recent volatility. At the same time, traditional finance analysts are starting to adjust their models. Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, for example, has suggested that the current cycle’s Bitcoin bottom may be around $59,000, citing potential catalysts like a SpaceX IPO and progress on a US–Iran peace deal.

That’s a notable shift from earlier in the year, when many analysts were still calling for much deeper drawdowns. If institutions and large buyers are treating the $59,000–$61,000 zone as a floor, it changes the risk–reward profile for everyone else.

For more context on how to think about Bitcoin bottoms and macro risk, you may find this guide on Bitcoin pullbacks and bottom signals helpful.

On-chain data: whales are done selling (for now)

On-chain analytics are backing up the idea that selling pressure may be exhausted. Data from CryptoQuant suggests that large Bitcoin holders (whales) have largely completed their distribution phase and may have triggered a rebound of roughly 65,000 BTC from the lows.

Two key points stand out:

• Exchange reserves are depleted: Fewer coins sitting on exchanges often means less immediate sell pressure. When whales move BTC off exchanges, it’s usually a sign of long-term holding rather than short-term trading.

• A strong support zone has formed: Whales appear to be defending the $60,000–$61,500 range, treating it as a rock-solid floor. When deep-pocketed players agree on a support zone, the “path of least resistance” for price often shifts upward.

Combined with improving macro conditions, this on-chain behavior supports the idea that the recent dip may have been a cyclical low rather than the start of a deeper bear market.

Revisiting the Bitcoin 4-year cycle

Bitcoin’s famous 4-year halving cycle is still the backbone of many long-term strategies, but a lot of the “micro rules” people attach to it can be misleading. The core idea is simple:

• Every four years, the Bitcoin halving cuts new supply in half.

• Historically, Bitcoin has peaked some time after the halving.

• After the peak, a bear market follows, eventually forming a bottom before the next cycle begins.

Other details—like exact day counts, pre-halving highs, or specific drawdown percentages—tend to vary from cycle to cycle. The only consistent pattern is that volatility and drawdowns gradually become less extreme as Bitcoin matures.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has never printed two consecutive red (down) years. If that pattern holds and this year closes green, it would catch many skeptics off guard and further reinforce the idea that the current pullback was a mid-cycle correction, not a full-blown extended bear market. If you want a deeper dive into this theme, check out our breakdown of why the toughest part of this Bitcoin bear market may already be behind us.

Bitcoin technicals: key levels to watch

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has recently shown some encouraging signs:

• Triangle breakout: Price broke out of a triangle pattern that often continues downward in a bearish trend. Instead, BTC moved up, which is a bullish deviation from the usual script.

• Momentum indicators turning: A bullish MACD crossover and an RSI breakout above its control line suggest that downside momentum is fading and buyers are regaining control.

• 20-day EMA test: Bitcoin has been pushing back toward its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) around the mid-$60,000s. This level often acts as a short-term decision point: a clean break above can open the door to further upside.

Based on the size of the recent breakout, some traders are eyeing targets in the $68,000–$70,000 range. That doesn’t guarantee a straight line up, but it does suggest that the market is no longer in a clear downtrend on the shorter timeframes.

For traders who missed the initial move, the 20-day EMA area is a key zone to watch. A strong reclaim and hold above it would add weight to the bullish reversal case, while a sharp rejection could signal that the market needs more time to consolidate.

Ethereum: quietly breaking out

While Bitcoin dominates the headlines, Ethereum has been quietly improving its own technical picture. ETH recently broke out of a consolidation triangle, with an implied move of around $200 from the breakout point. That puts a short-term target near $1,800, slightly above its 20-day EMA.

There’s also an important narrative shift happening under the hood. Ethereum researchers have highlighted that post-quantum account protection—security measures designed to withstand future quantum computers—can be implemented today for just a few cents per account, and without a hard fork. This kind of forward-looking development reinforces Ethereum’s position as a flexible, upgradeable smart contract platform.

From a trading standpoint, the cleanest entry was at the triangle breakout. If you’re evaluating ETH now, it’s worth watching how price behaves around the 20-day EMA and whether it can build a higher low structure that confirms a trend reversal rather than just a short-lived bounce.

Solana: at a make-or-break level

Solana has also joined the relief rally and is now testing a critical resistance area: its 20-day EMA. The recent move came off a triangle breakout, similar to Ethereum, with traders targeting the $78 region and beyond.

Right now, Solana is in a classic “make or break” spot:

• If it clears the 20-day EMA with strong volume, the next logical target is the 50-day EMA, which would confirm a more sustained recovery.

• If it gets rejected, price could revisit lower support levels, turning this into just another bear market rally.

For existing positions, many traders are moving stop losses to break even as price approaches resistance, locking in downside protection while leaving room for further upside. For new entries, patience around these EMA levels can help avoid buying directly into a potential rejection zone.

Regulation: could clarity finally be coming?

On the regulatory front, there’s cautious optimism. US lawmakers are pushing forward with a so-called “Clarity Act” aimed at providing more concrete rules for digital assets. Senator Tim Scott has suggested that this legislation could pass before August.

Regulatory clarity is a double-edged sword in the short term—it can create volatility as markets adjust—but in the long run it’s generally positive. Clearer rules make it easier for institutions to participate, unlock new products, and reduce the fear of sudden enforcement shocks that can spook investors.

If meaningful clarity does arrive, it could act as an additional catalyst for the next phase of the cycle, especially for altcoins that have been held back by regulatory uncertainty.

Crypto stocks and the AI data center pivot

It’s not just coins that are moving. Crypto-linked equities and infrastructure plays are also starting to show strength, often outpacing Bitcoin itself on a relative basis.

Galaxy Digital

Galaxy Digital has been outperforming Bitcoin on a relative strength basis, even as BTC recently retested the $59,000 area. Some analysts see this as a bullish signal for the broader crypto space. Galaxy’s story is evolving from being purely a crypto financial services firm to also becoming an AI data center play.

This dual exposure—crypto plus AI infrastructure—could be powerful if both narratives continue to gain traction. The company already has a profitable crypto business that stands to benefit from any renewed bull market, while its AI data center pivot positions it in one of the hottest growth sectors in tech.

Marathon Digital

Marathon Digital, long known as a major Bitcoin miner, is undergoing a similar transformation. The market is gradually waking up to the fact that Marathon is no longer just a pure mining company; it’s increasingly positioning itself as an AI data center operator as well.

This shift matters because it diversifies revenue streams and potentially reduces the company’s dependence on Bitcoin’s price alone. If BTC rallies and AI infrastructure demand continues to surge, Marathon could benefit from both trends. Some investors are already speculating about much higher long-term price targets if this dual narrative fully takes hold.

What this all means for Bitcoin holders

Putting it all together, several factors are lining up in favor of the bulls:

• Geopolitical tensions appear to be easing, which supports risk assets.

• Analysts and large buyers are treating the $59,000–$61,000 zone as a potential cycle bottom.

• On-chain data shows whales have largely finished selling and are defending key support.

• Technical indicators for BTC, ETH, and SOL are improving, with multiple triangle breakouts and EMA retests.

• Regulatory clarity and the rise of AI–crypto hybrid plays add fresh narratives for the next leg higher.

None of this guarantees a straight move up—Bitcoin has a long history of shaking out both bulls and bears before choosing a direction. But the balance of evidence is shifting away from “deep bear market” and toward “mid-cycle correction with a potential new uptrend forming.”

For long-term holders, that may mean the hardest psychological phase of the downturn is already in the rearview mirror. For active traders, it’s a reminder to respect both the emerging bullish structure and the key levels that would invalidate it.

As always, manage risk carefully, avoid overleveraging, and remember that even in the most promising setups, crypto remains one of the most volatile asset classes in the world.