Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing a make-or-break moment

After years of choppy price action, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both pressing into what could be their most important test of this cycle. On higher timeframes, they are sitting at long-term trendline resistance while momentum indicators show some of the most oversold readings in their history. The way price reacts here could decide whether we finally transition into a new macro bull market, or see one more sharp leg down first.

Why Bitcoin looks historically oversold

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) has recently hit levels that are extremely rare for the asset. The RSI is a momentum oscillator that moves more slowly on higher timeframes, so reaching oversold territory is not something that happens often.

Since 2011, Bitcoin has only touched this deeply oversold zone on the daily chart a couple of times: during the March 2020 COVID crash and during the late-2018 capitulation at the end of that bear market. Both of those moments marked major long-term bottoms.

This time is even more unusual because Bitcoin has hit that oversold area twice within just a few months. That suggests not only that price is oversold, but that it has been heavily suppressed for an extended period. On the 3‑day chart, the RSI is also near levels only seen a handful of times in Bitcoin’s history, again clustering around major macro lows.

In other words, from a momentum perspective, Bitcoin is in a zone where big reversals have often started in the past.

The key 3‑day trendline Bitcoin must break

The big technical test for Bitcoin is a simple but powerful trendline on the 3‑day chart. This line is drawn from the October 2025 all-time high and connects subsequent lower highs, forming the backbone of the current downtrend.

As long as Bitcoin trades below this trendline, the broader structure remains bearish. A clean break and hold above it is typically the first sign that a macro reversal is underway, similar to what happened when Bitcoin finally broke its 2021–2022 downtrend before the last bull run.

Bitcoin already attempted a breakout earlier in the year. It briefly pushed above the trendline and key moving averages, only to fail and fall back below. That move turned out to be a counter-trend rally rather than the start of a new bull market. The goal now is to avoid getting faked out in the same way again.

What a real Bitcoin breakout should look like

On the 3‑day chart, there are three main levels to watch if Bitcoin pushes higher from here:

1. Trendline break: Price needs to break and close decisively above the long-term trendline from the October 2025 high. This is the first step, but not enough on its own.

2. 3‑day 20 and 50 moving averages: Around the time of this test, the 20-period moving average on the 3‑day chart sits near $67,000 and the 50-period moving average around $70,000. A healthy reversal would see Bitcoin break above these levels and then come back to use them as support, instead of quickly losing them again.

3. Support flip, not just a spike: In the 2022 bottoming structure, once Bitcoin broke its downtrend, it pulled back to retest both the trendline and the 50 moving average as support before moving higher. That kind of behavior—resistance turning into support—is what confirms a real trend change.

Zooming into the daily chart helps refine the picture even more, especially around the 200‑day moving average, which is a classic bull/bear line for many traders.

Bitcoin’s daily chart: upside and downside targets

On the daily timeframe, the 20‑day, 50‑day, and 200‑day moving averages are the key guides for the next big move.

Upside roadmap:

If Bitcoin breaks above the downtrend line on the daily chart, here’s what a constructive bullish scenario would look like:

• Price reclaims the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages and starts closing above them.
• Those moving averages begin to slope upward instead of down.
• The 20‑day moving average crosses back above the 50‑day, signaling improving short-term momentum.
• Bitcoin then challenges the 200‑day moving average, currently around $74,000.

Even if the first test of the 200‑day fails, a bullish sign would be Bitcoin pulling back to hold the 20‑day and 50‑day as support, and then making another attempt. Sustained trading above the 200‑day is where traders can start seriously talking about a macro bull market reversal.

Key upside levels to watch:

• Around $65,000: daily 50‑day moving average zone
• Around $74,000: daily 200‑day moving average and major bull/bear line

Downside roadmap:

If Bitcoin fails to break higher and instead rolls over, the first important support zone is the late-June swing low:

• $55,000–$57,000: Retest of the recent low and the lower boundary of the current structure.

If that area breaks convincingly, Bitcoin could see another capitulation leg lower, continuing the pattern of step-down declines. In that case, the next major zone to watch would be:

• Upper $40,000s to around $50,000: A deeper flush that would likely feel painful in the short term, but could offer a powerful long-term accumulation opportunity for investors who remain bullish on the space.

Any such drop would almost certainly hit altcoins even harder, potentially creating some of the best risk–reward setups of the entire cycle for patient buyers. For more context on how this fits into the broader cycle, it’s worth revisiting how Bitcoin has behaved around major inflection points in the past, as covered in this analysis of what Bitcoin is doing right now.

Ethereum vs Bitcoin: watching ETH/BTC for clues

While Bitcoin wrestles with its own trendline, Ethereum is quietly building its own structure—and the ETH/BTC pair may be the real tell for when Ethereum’s next big move begins.

The ETH/BTC chart has been in a downtrend since a swing high in August 2025. A long-term trendline from that high, combined with key moving averages on the weekly chart, defines Ethereum’s relative weakness versus Bitcoin.

For Ethereum to start its own bull phase, ETH/BTC likely needs to:

• Break above its downtrend line from August 2025.
• Reclaim the 20‑week moving average as support.
• Eventually push above the 50‑week moving average as well.

In the last cycle, a similar breakout in ETH/BTC signaled the start of Ethereum’s strongest outperformance versus Bitcoin. If we see ETH/BTC repeat that pattern, it would be a major “game on” moment for Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.

Ethereum price targets: breakout or breakdown

On its own USD chart, Ethereum is forming a fresh consolidation structure with clear upside and downside targets.

Upside target:

• $2,200–$2,300: This is the first major breakout target if Ethereum can push above its current range. A move into this zone would go hand-in-hand with ETH starting to flip its moving averages from resistance into support, and would likely coincide with ETH/BTC showing strength.

If Ethereum can hold above that region and keep its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages trending upward, it would strongly suggest that a new uptrend—and potentially a full-blown bull market—has begun.

Downside target:

• Around $1,200: If Bitcoin sees a deeper capitulation into the high $40,000s or low $50,000s, Ethereum could be dragged down toward the $1,200 area. That would represent a major washout and, for long-term believers in Ethereum, a powerful accumulation zone.

As with Bitcoin, Ethereum’s 3‑day RSI is also at levels that have historically lined up with major bottoms. Each previous visit to this zone has marked or closely preceded a long-term low for ETH. The difference this time is the prolonged suppression, which suggests we may be nearing the end of an unusually extended downcycle.

Macro backdrop: why this test matters so much

All of this is happening against a shifting macroeconomic backdrop. The crypto market has been grinding through a long post–quantitative tightening phase, with liquidity conditions and risk appetite under pressure. At the same time, leading indicators like the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) suggest the business cycle may be turning back toward expansion.

Combine that with growing regulatory clarity—such as new legislation and clearer rules around digital assets—and you have the ingredients for a potential new era of growth in the crypto sector. This aligns with the idea that, after roughly five years of waiting and consolidation, the market could be on the verge of a fresh expansion phase.

However, the charts still need to confirm it. The next move from these critical trendlines and moving averages will likely decide whether we enter that expansion now or after one more flush lower. For a broader look at how these macro forces are lining up, you may also want to read this breakdown of the big things happening in crypto right now.

What to watch next

Bitcoin and Ethereum are both at game-changing levels on their 3‑day charts. The key confirmations to watch are:

• Bitcoin breaking and holding above its long-term downtrend line and the 20/50/200‑day moving averages, especially the $70,000–$74,000 zone.
• Bitcoin holding or losing the $55,000–$57,000 support area, with a deeper risk toward the upper $40,000s if that fails.
• Ethereum breaking toward $2,200–$2,300 and flipping its moving averages into support, or sliding toward $1,200 in a broader capitulation.
• ETH/BTC attempting to break its August 2025 downtrend and reclaim the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages.

Until those confirmations arrive, the market remains at a crossroads. But given how historically oversold both Bitcoin and Ethereum are, and how compressed their structures have become, the resolution—up or down—is likely to be powerful. For long-term crypto investors, this is the moment to pay close attention, refine plans, and be ready for whichever scenario plays out.