If bitcoin breaks $64k, what happens next?

Bitcoin has just come off a volatile week, printing a new local low near $59,000 before bouncing a few percent higher. The big question now is whether this is the start of a meaningful reversal—or just a pause before the next leg down. Several key indicators suggest the latter, and they highlight why a daily close above $64,000 could be crucial in the short term.

What the recent price action is telling us

Over the past week, bitcoin dropped to around $59,130, taking out the previous local low from early February. Since then, it has seen a couple of modest bounces of about 3–4%.

Compared with earlier in the year, however, this rebound looks weak. In early February, bitcoin fell roughly 14% in a single day and then bounced about 12% the next day. That kind of violent snapback is often what you see near a short-term bottom. This time, the bounce has been much smaller, suggesting selling pressure may not be exhausted yet.

RSI: Oversold, but not a guaranteed bottom

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dropped into deeply oversold territory on the daily chart, hitting around 5.5—one of the lowest readings since late 2018. Oversold RSI can signal that a bounce or relief rally is likely, and we’ve already seen RSI reset higher with a small bullish structure (a higher low after crossing back above 25).

However, history shows that extreme RSI readings don’t always mark the final bottom. In November 2018, a similarly low RSI reading was followed by another 30% drop in bitcoin’s price. The current RSI reset supports the idea of a short-term bounce, but it doesn’t rule out another leg down.

Volume and on-balance volume still lean bearish

Volume is a key piece of the puzzle. Recent selling saw daily volume spike to about $3.3 billion, which is big—but still below what you’d expect from a true capitulation event. Since then, volume has faded and has even dipped below its moving average on some days, suggesting that the latest bounce lacks strong conviction.

On-balance volume (OBV), which tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure, is also firmly bearish. Despite the recent price bounce, OBV remains in a clear downtrend, indicating that sellers still dominate. For a sustainable reversal, you’d typically want to see OBV flatten out or turn higher as buyers step back in. That hasn’t happened yet.

Why the $64k level matters right now

Price recently broke out of a short-term bearish pennant to the upside, which is unusual because these patterns typically continue the downtrend. The breakout pushed bitcoin up to around $63,900, just below a key resistance area near $64,000.

This region lines up with a technical level known as TBO support/resistance (from the Trending Breakout Indicator). Once price closed below this level in early June, it flipped from support to resistance. Since then, bitcoin has repeatedly wicked above it but failed to close above it, showing that sellers are still defending this zone.

A strong daily close above roughly $64,000 would be the first convincing sign that buyers are regaining control in the short term. Ideally, that move would come with a 5%+ green day and a clear surge in volume. Without that kind of follow-through, the breakout from the pennant looks more like a temporary relief move than the start of a new uptrend.

The TBO cloud: Trend still points down

The Trending Breakout Indicator (TBO) uses four moving averages to define the trend and key support/resistance zones. Since late May, bitcoin has been trading below the TBO cloud, and all four of the cloud’s lines are now pointing down together. That alignment signals a strong bearish trend.

Even though the lines aren’t perfectly “stacked” like they were during earlier sharp sell-offs, the fact that they all slope downward suggests that the path of least resistance remains lower. If price were to rally toward the fast TBO line—currently around $67,000—that area would likely act as a strong resistance zone and a potential shorting opportunity for bearish traders.

Key levels to watch: $61.8k, $64k, and $67k

In the near term, there are three important price levels to keep an eye on:

• ~$61,800 support: This is a short-term support area that has already seen one wick below it. A daily close under this level could trigger the next leg down, especially if it happens on rising volume.

• ~$64,000 resistance: This is the TBO resistance line that used to be support. A decisive close above it would be a bullish short-term signal and could open the door to a move higher.

• ~$67,000 resistance (TBO fast line): If bitcoin manages to break above $64k, the next major test would be near $67k. This is where the TBO fast line sits and where many bears would likely look to re-enter or add to short positions.

As long as bitcoin remains below $64k—and especially below the TBO fast line near $67k—the broader technical picture remains bearish.

Downside targets: $49k and $38.5k

Based on the current trend and how previous bear markets have played out, lower targets around $49,000 and even $38,555 are still very much in play. These levels line up with deeper retracement zones and would represent a more typical “bottom year” correction after a strong prior bull run.

If bitcoin continues to grind lower and eventually breaks key supports, a move toward these zones would not be surprising. For a deeper dive into how far this drop could go and where bitcoin is likely to bottom, it’s worth reading this detailed analysis of potential downside targets.

Weekly RSI and the macro trend

On the weekly chart, RSI is approaching oversold territory but hasn’t fully broken below 25 yet. If bitcoin closes lower this week and weekly RSI dips under that threshold, it would be a strong signal that the macro trend is still bearish and could stay that way for some time.

This would be consistent with previous bear markets, where weekly RSI spent a prolonged period in or near oversold territory before a true long-term bottom formed. For more context on how fear-driven sell-offs have played out historically, you can check out this breakdown of why bitcoin gets hit so hard during panic phases.

Stablecoin dominance confirms risk-off behavior

Another important piece of the puzzle is combined stablecoin dominance—the share of total crypto market cap held in stablecoins. Recently, stablecoin dominance pulled back slightly (around 3%), but the overall trend is still strongly up.

The TBO cloud on this chart shows all four lines (slow, medium-slow, medium-fast, and fast) pointing higher, indicating a strong bullish trend for stablecoin dominance. In simple terms, capital is still flowing into stablecoins and staying there, which usually means traders are cautious and risk-off rather than piling into bitcoin and altcoins.

As long as stablecoin dominance remains in a strong uptrend, it’s another sign that the broader crypto market is not yet ready for a sustained bullish move.

What it all means for traders and investors

Putting it all together, the current setup looks like this:

• Short-term bounces are possible, especially if RSI stays reset and price holds above local support.

• A daily close above ~$64k would be the first real sign that bulls are fighting back, with ~$67k as the next major test.

• As long as price stays below these resistance levels and the TBO cloud remains strongly bearish, lower targets around $49k and $38.5k remain likely.

• Weekly RSI and rising stablecoin dominance both support the idea that the macro trend is still down.

For traders, this environment favors caution, patience, and flexibility. Short-term rallies can offer opportunities, but they’re likely to be counter-trend moves unless bitcoin can reclaim and hold above key resistance levels. For longer-term investors, deeper dips into the $40k–$30k range could eventually present more attractive accumulation zones—provided you manage risk carefully and accept that volatility works both ways.

Until the charts clearly flip back to a bullish structure, the trend remains your guide—and right now, that trend is still pointing down.