Why cheaper bitcoin now could fuel the next big bull run

Bitcoin is sliding, sentiment is shaky, and many traders are on edge. But if you zoom out, this kind of drawdown is exactly what long‑term bulls should be hoping for. Cheaper prices, time for the market to reset, and growing on‑chain infrastructure are all ingredients that tend to appear before the next big cycle kicks off.

Bitcoin at the 200‑week moving average: why it matters

On the weekly chart, bitcoin is hovering around its 200‑week simple moving average (SMA). This line has historically acted as a major valuation zone for BTC. In past cycles, dips to (and below) the 200‑week SMA have often marked deep value areas rather than the start of permanent collapse.

Right now, weekly candles are repeatedly testing this level and getting pushed down from resistance above. The more often a support line like the 200‑week is tested, the higher the chance it eventually breaks. If that happens, bitcoin could easily trade lower into the $50k range and, in a more aggressive flush, even into the $40k area.

For short‑term holders, that sounds scary. For long‑term bulls, it’s an opportunity. If you believe bitcoin will make new highs into the next cycle, then deeper discounts near or below the 200‑week SMA are where you want to be accumulating, not panicking.

For more context on how big moves often build quietly, see why the next big bitcoin move may be closer than it looks.

Cheap before bullish: the case for time-based capitulation

Markets don’t just reset with price; they also reset with time. After a big top, it often takes many months of sideways or drifting‑down action before most people emotionally accept that prices are “cheap again.”

As we move further away from the last major peak and the “risk‑off” moment in October, more investors start to think: maybe bitcoin is actually undervalued now. That shift doesn’t happen overnight. It’s a slow psychological process—time‑based capitulation—where:

• Early dip buyers get worn out or stopped out
• Casual speculators lose interest
• Attention and hype die down

Only after that do fresh waves of buyers begin to return, seeing value instead of pain. That’s why a grinding, boring market can be bullish for patient investors: it clears out weak hands and sets the stage for a healthier next leg up.

Looking ahead to the next halving cycle

The next bitcoin halving is still roughly two years away, but the clock is ticking. Historically, the strongest bull runs have unfolded in the period from just before a halving through the following 1–2 years.

We’re not there yet—but that’s the point. The farther we get from the last peak and the closer we move toward the next halving, the more compelling the long‑term risk/reward becomes for buyers who can think in multi‑year timeframes.

That window—cheap prices now, with a halving on the horizon—is often where the best long‑term entries are found. It’s also where disciplined investors who derisked near the top can redeploy capital from a position of strength instead of desperation.

SpaceX, tokenization, and why not to FOMO into hype

The same psychology playing out in bitcoin is visible in other hot assets, like SpaceX equity and tokenized stocks. SpaceX has been sliding hard from euphoric levels, with each new candle making lower lows. That’s classic “falling knife” behavior—exactly the kind of chart where FOMO buyers get punished.

On top of that, only a small percentage of SpaceX’s total equity is currently circulating. As more shares unlock over the coming quarters, insiders will have more supply to sell, which can keep pressure on the price. That’s why chasing peak hype in pre‑IPO or newly tradable names is usually a bad idea.

The smarter approach is to let the initial excitement die down, allow the chart to build a base, and see how the asset trades when no one is talking about it. That’s when you start to discover a fair price, based on fundamentals and real demand—not just headlines and emotion. The same logic applies to other hyped pre‑IPO names like OpenAI or Anthropic: without a chart and real trading history, you’re flying blind.

If you’re interested in how SpaceX’s eventual IPO could intersect with bitcoin demand, check out how SpaceX’s IPO could quietly supercharge Bitcoin demand.

MicroStrategy’s complex funding loop

MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to be one of the most aggressive corporate bitcoin buyers, but its capital structure is getting increasingly complex. The company has been issuing and selling common stock (MSTR) to raise cash, while also using a preferred instrument (often referred to as “STRAT” or similar structured products) that pays dividends to investors.

The rough loop looks like this:

• Sell MSTR common stock to raise cash
• Use that cash to pay dividends to holders of the structured preferred instrument
• Use the preferred structure to raise more money to buy more bitcoin

At some point, if the preferred instrument trades too far below par, the company may have to increase dividends or find other ways to support its price. That could force MicroStrategy to choose between selling more MSTR stock or even selling bitcoin to keep the structure attractive. It’s a high‑wire act: fascinating to watch, but not necessarily something every investor will be comfortable riding along with.

Regulation and Ethereum’s scaling challenge

On the regulatory front, the US Senate has passed a bill that would effectively block the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC) until at least 2030. For crypto users, that means less immediate risk of a government‑run digital competitor to stablecoins and public blockchains.

Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to wrestle with its own long‑term positioning. A new nonprofit, ETH Labs, has been launched as an R&D hub for the Ethereum ecosystem. The goal is to help push Ethereum forward on scaling, research, and infrastructure.

The big question remains: can Ethereum realistically scale to tens of thousands of transactions per second while staying decentralized and secure? Many fast chains already exist, but Ethereum’s challenge is to combine speed with its existing network effects and security model. More nonprofits and organizations are nice, but the ecosystem ultimately needs concrete throughput improvements and lower fees if it wants to stay the default smart‑contract platform a decade from now.

Solana’s on-chain momentum and tokenized stocks

While prices are soft across the market, Solana’s on‑chain activity is quietly building a strong narrative. Several trends stand out:

• Tokenized stocks on Solana: More and more real‑world equities are being tokenized and traded as spot assets on Solana. Instead of using 10x leverage on perpetual futures, traders can buy and hold tokenized versions of stocks like Micron (MU) directly on‑chain.
• Fragmentation of use cases: Hyperliquid is emerging as a go‑to venue for high‑leverage perps, while Solana is increasingly the place to own spot tokenized stocks and other assets 24/7.
• Rising volumes: Tokenized stock spot volume on Solana has reportedly jumped by hundreds of percent week over week, signaling real demand for on‑chain access to traditional markets.

At the same time, Solana’s overall transaction count has cooled off from peak meme‑coin mania, reflecting the broader bear market. But that’s not necessarily bearish: as prices stabilize and new use cases like tokenized stocks, corporate bonds, and payments mature, the next wave of users can arrive on a more solid foundation.

More signs of on-chain adoption

Beyond Solana, other on‑chain developments point to a slow but steady trend toward real‑world integration:

• Tokenized corporate bonds: A 118‑year‑old Scottish investment firm, Baillie Gifford, is issuing a tokenized corporate bond on Ethereum and Solana, offering around 7% yield with BNY Mellon providing tokenization infrastructure.
• Analytics and data: New tools are aggregating Solana metrics—like transaction counts, fees, and compute usage—under unified schemas, making it easier for both developers and investors to analyze network health.
• Confidential computing and AI: Projects focused on confidential computation and AI on Solana are launching, aiming to bring privacy‑preserving machine learning and data processing on‑chain.

These are not the kind of headlines that cause instant price spikes, but they are the kind of infrastructure stories that tend to matter when the next bull market arrives. When liquidity returns, the chains with real products, tooling, and integrations in place are usually the ones that benefit most.

AI stocks, parabolas, and why gravity matters

Outside of crypto, AI‑linked stocks have been on a tear. Names like Micron, Intel, and various AI infrastructure plays have gone near‑parabolic on the weekly chart. While the trend is still up, parabolic moves always end the same way: eventually, gravity wins.

Some of the mega‑caps like Nvidia and Broadcom are already showing signs of struggling against that gravity, with weaker follow‑through compared to earlier in the run. If and when the AI trade cools off, it could trigger a broader stock market pullback.

Paradoxically, that might be exactly what the Federal Reserve needs as an excuse to cut rates. With oil prices down and inflation easing, a softer equity market would give policymakers cover to lower rates without looking like they’re just juicing an already frothy market. For crypto, lower rates are typically a medium‑term tailwind, as they push investors back out the risk curve.

Why discipline and mechanical rules matter

One recurring theme in this environment is the importance of having clear, mechanical trading and investing rules. Traders who derisked into strength in Q4 now have dry powder and emotional clarity. They’re not begging for prices to come back; they’re waiting for their setups.

Mechanical rules help in several ways:

• Limiting losses: Small, predefined stop‑losses mean you can be wrong multiple times in a row without blowing up your account.
• Reducing emotion: You don’t need to convince yourself a bad trade is good; the rules tell you when to exit.
• Timing shorts and longs: There are seasons where shorting makes sense and seasons where it doesn’t. Rules help you distinguish between them instead of guessing.

In a choppy, grinding market like this, that discipline is more valuable than ever. Without it, it’s easy to FOMO into tops, sell bottoms, and miss the real opportunities when they finally appear.

Positioning for the next cycle

Bitcoin is weak in the short term, but that weakness is happening right where long‑term value investors start paying attention: around the 200‑week moving average and potentially below. Altcoin activity is fragmented, but real on‑chain adoption—tokenized stocks, bonds, and payments—is quietly growing, especially on networks like Solana and Ethereum.

If you derisked near the top, you’re in a powerful position: you can choose when to redeploy, instead of hoping the market bails you out. If you didn’t, this part of the cycle is your chance to learn those lessons before the next bull run. Either way, the combination of cheaper prices, time‑based capitulation, and expanding on‑chain infrastructure suggests that the story isn’t over. It’s just in a slower, more patient chapter.