How low can bitcoin go in this crash?

Bitcoin is under pressure again, and traders are asking the same question: how low can it go this time? With fresh inflation data surprising to the upside, talk of a bigger-than-expected Fed rate hike, and sentiment turning sour, the market is at a key turning point.

Why inflation and the Fed suddenly matter again

New inflation data just came in hotter than expected. That has quickly shifted expectations from a mild policy move to something more aggressive from the US Federal Reserve.

One well-known market and Fed watcher, Ed Yardeni, now thinks a 50 basis point (0.50%) rate hike in December is increasingly likely, not just the 25 basis points many were expecting. His logic is simple: the economy and labor market are still strong, inflation is above the Fed’s comfort zone, and policymakers risk falling behind the curve if they move too slowly.

In other words, the Fed may feel forced to tighten faster to catch up, which tends to drain liquidity from risk assets like stocks and crypto.

What a bigger rate hike means for bitcoin

Historically, higher interest rates and tighter liquidity are short-term headwinds for bitcoin. A more aggressive hike makes borrowing more expensive, pressures speculative assets, and often triggers risk-off moves across markets.

But if you zoom out, bitcoin’s long-term track record around rate hikes is surprisingly strong. Looking at every Fed rate hike cycle in history, bitcoin has been higher three years later each time, with a median three-year compounded annual growth rate of about 71%.

If bitcoin were to grow 71% from current levels over the next three years, that would imply a price around $125,000. There’s no guarantee this pattern continues, but it’s a reminder that short-term macro pain has not stopped long-term BTC appreciation so far.

Key support levels: where could bitcoin bottom?

On the technical side, bitcoin recently dropped toward $73,000 and is testing major moving averages that often act as support in bull markets.

On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average sits around $73,000. If that level fails to hold, the next big zones to watch are:

• The 200-week moving average near $67,000
• A longer-term monthly support area around $64,000

These are classic “higher low” zones in an ongoing uptrend. Some analysts believe bitcoin could still make a lower low this cycle, even below $57,000 during the current US administration. Others think this drawdown will simply form the first major higher low of the new bull market.

The first higher low is usually the scariest because it still feels like the last bear market. But structurally, as long as BTC holds above its prior major bottom and reclaims these moving averages over time, the broader uptrend can remain intact. For a deeper dive into potential downside scenarios, you may find it useful to compare this move with the levels outlined in this analysis of how low bitcoin could realistically go.

Is this just like bitcoin in 2023?

One bullish interpretation is that today’s action rhymes with 2023: a scary pullback into key moving averages that eventually sets up the next leg higher. Back then, macro fears and recession talk were everywhere, but BTC quietly based and moved up once the worst expectations were priced in.

We could see something similar now. If bitcoin defends one of these major support levels and macro panic cools down, this correction may look like a textbook higher low in hindsight.

Tokenized assets and the quiet adoption boom

While prices wobble, on-chain adoption data is telling a different story. The total circulating supply of tokenized equities on-chain surged by about $930 million in a single week recently — the largest weekly jump on record. That pushed the total value of tokenized stocks above $4.7 billion, a new all-time high.

That growth happened despite midterm election uncertainty, the Nvidia-related headlines, and looming Fed hikes. It suggests that serious players are still building and deploying tokenization infrastructure even when sentiment is bearish.

Why the New York Stock Exchange chose Avalanche

One of the clearest signs of this trend is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) selecting Avalanche as the blockchain to power its tokenized securities platform.

Over the course of a year, NYSE and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) teams worked closely with Avalanche’s engineers and business development staff. They stress-tested the tech, compared it with other blockchains, and evaluated how well Avalanche understood the needs of a heavily regulated, traditional finance institution.

After intense due diligence and many technical reviews, NYSE concluded that if they were going to put any blockchain at the core of their tokenized alternative trading system (ATS), it had to be Avalanche. The platform is expected to launch in Q4, and it’s a strong signal that major traditional players see crypto rails as core infrastructure, not a passing fad.

New ways to passively invest in bitcoin

Another underappreciated trend is the rise of simple, passive products that include bitcoin by default. One example is a strategy that starts with 95% exposure to the S&P 500 and 5% to bitcoin.

Here’s how it works:

• The portfolio begins at 95% equities, 5% BTC.
• Dividends from the equity portion are reinvested into bitcoin over time.
• If bitcoin grows so much that it exceeds a set threshold (for example, above 5% of the portfolio), the allocation is trimmed back slightly (e.g., to 4.5%).
• If bitcoin underperforms, the manager does not keep averaging down aggressively; they simply maintain the BTC allocation.

This kind of structure gives investors controlled upside to bitcoin’s potential without taking on full crypto volatility. It also steadily removes BTC from the open market as dividends are converted into bitcoin and held for the long term.

What about founders and insiders?

Market stress doesn’t just affect retail investors; it can hit founders too. A light-hearted but telling example is Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson mentioning he sold his Blackhawk helicopter about four months ago and that he misses it. While this isn’t a sale of crypto holdings, it’s a reminder that even high-profile figures adjust their lifestyles and assets when conditions change.

At the same time, crypto founders are under more scrutiny than ever. In contrast to scandals in traditional finance and some parts of crypto, many prominent builders keep a low profile and focus on development rather than hype. For Cardano specifically, the current price environment has sparked questions about whether ADA is close to a bottom or still facing more pain, a topic covered in detail in this Cardano crash analysis.

Lessons from five years of “no gains”

If you bought near the top of the last cycle, this environment can feel brutal. For some holders, it has been close to five years with little or no net gains after multiple boom-and-bust swings.

But this kind of sideways grind is not unique to crypto. Many of the most successful stocks in history have gone through a decade of flat performance before exploding higher, as long as their underlying fundamentals kept improving. The key is whether the network is still growing, the tech is still being adopted, and real-world use cases are expanding.

In crypto, tokenized assets, institutional-grade infrastructure, and mainstream investment products are all pointing to steady fundamental progress beneath the surface volatility.

Patience, time horizons, and risk

Investing is a game that rewards patience and a long-term mindset. Trying to perfectly time every top and bottom is almost impossible, especially in a market as fast-moving and emotional as crypto.

Instead, many long-term investors focus on:

• Defining a clear time horizon (often 3–10 years for bitcoin).
• Position sizing so that volatility is tolerable.
• Using major pullbacks into strong support as opportunities, not automatic reasons to panic.
• Paying attention to on-chain and adoption metrics rather than only price.

There is always a chance of a deeper low — even below $57,000 — especially if macro conditions worsen. But there is also a strong case that bitcoin is simply forming a higher low on the way to its next major cycle peak.

As always, none of this is financial advice. It’s essential to do your own research, understand your risk tolerance, and build a plan you can stick with through both crashes and rallies.