Has bitcoin finally bottomed? What the cycle data and charts are saying

Bitcoin has surged sharply off its recent lows, leaving traders wondering: was that the bottom, and is a new bull market underway? The answer is: maybe – but the chart hasn’t fully confirmed it yet.

Where bitcoin is in the current trend

The recent move in bitcoin has been powerful. After grinding lower in a series of lower highs and lower lows, price finally broke out of a major descending trendline that had been capping rallies for months. That breakout led to a vertical push higher, but BTC is now stalling just under its previous swing high.

Right now, bitcoin is still technically in a downtrend because the structure has been:

• Lower highs
• Lower lows

For that to change, BTC needs to put in a higher high. The key area to watch is the last major pivot high around the low–$82,000 region. Price has come very close to that level, but has not convincingly broken above it yet.

Once bitcoin pushes through that prior high and holds above it, the chart will shift from a pattern of lower highs to higher highs. At that point, traders can start looking for a series of higher lows on pullbacks – a classic sign that the trend is turning up and that the bear phase may be ending.

Why bitcoin is stalling at resistance

The current pause in bitcoin’s rally is not random. It lines up with multiple technical levels drawn from previous bear flag structures.

In the last leg of the downtrend, BTC carved out a couple of clear bear flags: short periods of choppy upward or sideways movement that eventually broke lower. If you extend the trendlines from those old flag patterns into the present, they converge almost perfectly where bitcoin has just topped out.

That confluence of resistance explains why price has struggled to break straight through. It doesn’t mean BTC can’t go higher; it simply shows that this is a logical place for the market to pause, digest gains, and decide whether it has enough momentum to break out again.

What would confirm a new bull market?

The chart is sending more bullish signals than it did in previous failed rallies, but traders should still wait for confirmation. A simple way to think about it:

• Current situation: BTC has broken a big descending trendline and staged a strong vertical rally, but has not yet made a higher high.
• Bullish confirmation: BTC breaks above the last major pivot high (around the prior $82K region) and then forms a higher low on the next pullback.

If that happens, the price structure flips:

• From: Lower highs and lower lows (downtrend)
• To: Higher highs and higher lows (uptrend)

Even with a breakout, bitcoin could still see pullbacks – for example, a dip back toward the mid–$60Ks or high–$60Ks would be normal. The key is that those dips should form higher lows rather than undercutting the recent bottom.

For more context on how analysts think about these inflection points, you may also want to read this breakdown on whether bitcoin’s bottom has already formed.

Bitcoin cycle timing: is this bottom too early?

One of the biggest questions is whether this recent low fits bitcoin’s historical cycle timing. When we compare the current cycle to previous ones, something interesting shows up.

Comparing past peaks and bottoms

• The 2017 cycle: From the 2017 peak to the bear market bottom took roughly 360 days (about one year).
• The 2021 cycle: From the 2021 peak to the eventual bottom again took roughly the same amount of time, almost identical in length to the 2017–2018 cycle.

In the current cycle, if we measure from the recent all-time high to the latest low, we get about 266 days – roughly 100 days shorter than the last two cycles.

On a strict like-for-like comparison, that would suggest the bottom might be early, and that more downside could still be possible if bitcoin were to repeat its old timing perfectly.

Why this cycle might be shorter

Historical cycles are a guide, not a rulebook. There are reasons why bitcoin’s current cycle could be shorter than previous ones, especially if you view BTC as a form of “digital gold.”

Gold’s own long-term cycles have been compressing. The time between its major bull market peaks has been shrinking:

• 1980 to 2011: about 31 years between major highs.
• 2011 to the next projected peak (mid–2020s): closer to 15 years.

Why are cycles compressing? Two major macro factors:

• Rising M2 money supply: Global liquidity has been expanding at a faster pace, with money supply growing by around 7% per year or more in many periods.
• Surging government debt and de-dollarization: US debt is climbing by roughly a trillion dollars every few months, and central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold holdings. Gold has recently overtaken the US dollar as the largest reserve asset held by central banks.

If bitcoin is indeed evolving into a digital store of value similar to gold, it makes sense that its cycles could also shorten over time as liquidity and debt loads accelerate. That opens the door for this cycle’s bottom to be earlier than past ones, even if the timing doesn’t match previous cycles day-for-day.

How this rally compares to prior failed rallies

Another way to judge whether a bottom might be in is to compare the size and character of the current rally to prior bounces during the bear market.

In a previous cycle, after a major low, bitcoin broke a descending trendline and bounced about 21% before rolling over and making a new low. That move was relatively muted and stayed within a broader bear flag structure.

This time, the move off the recent low has been much more aggressive:

• The current vertical leg has gained around 40–42% from low to high, roughly double the size of that earlier failed bounce.
• Price has pushed hard into resistance rather than drifting up slowly.

In the earlier cycle, the true turning point came when bitcoin finally put in a clear higher high after a series of lower highs. That higher high marked the transition into a new bull phase, followed by a strong series of higher lows.

We are now on the verge of that same kind of setup. If BTC can break above the previous pivot high and hold it, the chart will begin to resemble the early stages of the last major bull market.

Ethereum: strong structure and a clean bull flag

While bitcoin is still fighting to confirm a higher high, Ethereum’s chart already looks more constructive.

ETH recently bottomed and formed a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern – a bullish reversal structure where price makes a low (left shoulder), a deeper low (head), and then a higher low (right shoulder) before breaking out above the neckline.

After breaking out of that pattern, Ethereum rallied strongly and is now consolidating in a tight range, forming a bull flag just above a key former support level:

• The previous pivot low from the last bear flag now acts as support.
• Price has already made a higher high compared to the prior swing high.
• Consolidation is happening above that level, not below it.

As long as ETH holds that reclaimed support and the bull flag structure remains intact, the path of least resistance continues to lean higher. This setup is the kind of structure traders often look for when positioning for a potential continuation move.

For a broader look at breakout zones across majors, including ETH and HYPE, check out our guide to bullish breakout levels to watch for BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, XRP, and HYPE.

Hyperliquid (HYPE): approaching short-term resistance

Hyperliquid (often traded under the ticker HYPE) has delivered a huge move, rallying from around $50 to roughly $90 in a short period. That kind of run is impressive, but it also brings price into a zone where risk-reward starts to shift.

A key descending trendline drawn from prior highs and extended forward now lines up with the current price region:

• The line acted as support multiple times in the past.
• It then flipped into resistance.
• Price is now pushing back up into that same area, around the low–$90s.

That trendline confluence suggests that HYPE is nearing a significant resistance zone. Traders looking for short-term opportunities may see this as an area to start nibbling on short positions or at least to be cautious about chasing new longs after such a large move.

Zcash (ZEC): extended rally with negative divergence

Zcash has been one of the standout movers, ripping from under $500 to above $1,200 in a very short time – more than a 100% move from its August low.

On the chart, ZEC is trading inside an ascending parallel channel. Price is now pushing toward the upper boundary of that channel, which often acts as a strong resistance zone in the short term.

Several warning signs are starting to appear:

• Extreme extension: The move has been almost straight up, with little consolidation.
• Approaching major resistance: The upper parallel line of the channel is close overhead, historically a spot where rallies often stall or reverse.
• Negative RSI divergence: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs while price is making higher highs. This kind of divergence often signals that momentum is weakening and that larger players may be unloading into strength.

Upside targets from here might extend into the $1,250–$1,300 area, but the risk of a pullback is rising. Logical downside levels to watch on a correction include:

• Around $900: a key previous pivot top that may now act as support.
• Potentially as low as $700: another prior high that could become a deeper support zone if selling accelerates.

Traders already in profits may consider managing risk more tightly in this region, while aggressive traders might look for short setups if price action confirms a reversal at resistance.

What it all means for crypto traders

Putting it together, the charts across these assets paint a nuanced picture:

• Bitcoin: The recent vertical surge has the look of a potential bottoming move, but the cycle is about 100 days shorter than prior bottoms, and BTC still needs to break its last major high to confirm a new uptrend.
• Ethereum: Structure is already stronger, with a completed inverse head and shoulders, a higher high, and a clean bull flag holding above reclaimed support.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): A powerful run into a well-defined resistance trendline suggests the rally may be getting stretched in the short term.
• Zcash (ZEC): Extremely extended, nearing major channel resistance, and showing negative RSI divergence – all classic signs that a pullback could be on the horizon.

Instead of anchoring to a fixed bullish or bearish narrative, it helps to think in terms of probabilities: watch the key levels, respect the trend structure, and let the charts confirm the story. If bitcoin can push through its prior high and start carving out higher lows, the case for a new bull market will become much stronger. Until then, staying flexible – and selective across altcoins – remains the smarter play.