Bitcoin warning signal confirmed as ETFs see huge inflows

Bitcoin is flashing a fresh short-term warning signal just as spot Bitcoin ETFs record some of their strongest inflows in weeks. That combination can be confusing for traders: on one hand, big money is buying spot BTC; on the other, key indicators suggest the market may need a breather.

Massive Bitcoin ETF inflows led by BlackRock

On the ETF side, the data is clearly bullish. After a fairly balanced start to the week, Thursday saw a huge surge of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Across all issuers, there was more than $730 million in net inflows in a single day, one of the biggest daily totals in many weeks. To put that into perspective, the historical average daily net inflow for Bitcoin ETFs is around $83 million. Thursday’s figure was almost nine times that average.

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF was the standout. It alone attracted about $454 million in net inflows, meaning nearly half a billion dollars of fresh capital effectively asked BlackRock to buy spot Bitcoin on behalf of investors in just one day. Other issuers also saw positive flows, but BlackRock dominated the session.

These inflows represent real spot demand, not just leveraged futures bets. ETF providers must hold actual BTC to back their shares, so this kind of activity is a strong sign that institutional and large-scale investors on Wall Street continue to accumulate Bitcoin.

Long-term Bitcoin trend: bullish structure still intact

Zooming out to the higher timeframes, Bitcoin’s overall trend remains constructive despite short-term warning signs.

On the weekly chart, a large bullish divergence has been confirmed for about two months. Price made lower lows while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) made higher lows, a pattern that historically has marked major turning points. The last time a similar weekly bullish divergence appeared was near the end of the 2022 bear market, which turned out to be one of the best buying opportunities in recent years.

The weekly supertrend indicator is also close to flipping fully bullish, although that has not yet been confirmed. Taken together, these higher-timeframe signals support a longer-term bullish outlook over the coming months and potentially into the next year, even if the short term gets choppy.

For more background on how these signals have played out in the past, you may also want to check our earlier breakdown in this guide to key Bitcoin warning signals and levels.

Key Bitcoin resistance and upside targets

On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin is currently battling a major resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000. This is the immediate ceiling the market needs to clear to resume strong upside momentum.

If price can break and hold above roughly $82,000 with clear candle closes and sustained support, the next upside targets to watch are:

• Around $86,000–$88,000 as the next resistance band
• Around $96,000–$98,000 as a higher resistance area if momentum remains strong

However, with price already near resistance and momentum indicators stretched, the path of least resistance in the very short term may be sideways or slightly down before another push higher.

The new Bitcoin warning signal: daily bearish divergence

The main short-term warning now showing up on the charts is a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe.

Price has pushed to higher highs, but the daily RSI is making lower highs. This divergence suggests that while price is still climbing, underlying momentum is weakening. The signal has at least one confirmation already, and further downside or sideways action in the RSI over the next couple of days would strengthen it.

Importantly, a bearish divergence is not an automatic crash signal. It usually points to a cooling-off phase, where the market either consolidates sideways or pulls back modestly to reset indicators before attempting another move.

Given how overbought Bitcoin became during the recent short squeeze, it would be difficult for RSI to break to new highs without a pause. That’s why a daily bearish divergence was always a likely outcome once price moved above previous highs.

Short-term Bitcoin outlook and downside levels

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin recently hit overbought conditions on the RSI, which has already started to resolve through a minor pullback. This fits with the daily bearish divergence and the broader idea that the market needs a breather.

In the next few days to perhaps a couple of weeks, the most likely scenarios are:

• Choppy sideways price action within a range
• A modest pullback that stays within the broader bullish structure

Notably, the analysis does not point to a deep crash back to previous cycle lows, but rather a slowdown in bullish momentum.

Liquidation heatmap: where liquidity is building

Looking at the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap reveals where clusters of leveraged positions sit, which can act as magnets for price.

Key liquidity areas include:

• Above price: a smaller liquidity pocket around $82,300–$82,400
• Below price: a small cluster around $78,100–$78,300
• Major liquidity: a more significant zone just above $76,000 (around $76,100)

This deeper liquidity area near $76,000 lines up with recent local lows. It would not be surprising to see price test or approach this region during a short-term cool-off, even if it does not break decisively below it. A move toward $76,000 would still be consistent with a healthy correction inside a larger bullish trend.

Bitcoin dominance: still rangebound near resistance

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap) remains in a broad sideways range that has held for almost a year. The current reading is drifting toward a resistance zone between about 60.5% and 61%.

In the short term, dominance looks slightly more bullish, but that resistance could trigger another rejection, which would favor altcoins relative to BTC. Until dominance breaks out of this year-long range, the market is likely to keep oscillating between brief Bitcoin-led phases and periods where altcoins catch up.

Ethereum: bullish breakout holds, but needs a cooldown

Ethereum is also showing a constructive bigger picture, even as it cools off from overbought conditions.

On the 3-day chart, ETH has broken above a key resistance band around $2,300–$2,400 and is currently holding that zone as support. This area previously capped price, and flipping it into support is a classic sign of bullish structure.

ETH has also printed its first major higher high versus the April 2024 peak, something we have not seen since the start of the bear market. Combined with a pattern of higher lows, this confirms a new uptrend on the 3-day timeframe.

However, the 3-day RSI recently hit overbought territory, suggesting that, like Bitcoin, Ethereum may need more time to consolidate. In the near term (days to a couple of weeks), ETH is likely to show:

• Sideways or slightly corrective price action
• Continued defense of the $2,300–$2,400 support zone if the bullish trend is to remain intact

From a multi-week to multi-month perspective, the structure remains bullish as long as price holds above those reclaimed support levels.

XRP: holding key support in a trading range

XRP is currently trading above an important support area on the weekly chart, roughly between $1.30 and $1.40. The $1.30 level in particular stands out as a key line in the sand that buyers have been defending.

On the daily chart, XRP bounced along with Bitcoin and other large-cap altcoins during the recent move up, but with BTC now entering a potential consolidation phase, XRP may also cool off.

In the short term, the most likely scenario is a range-bound market between about $1.30 and $1.50. Within this band, price may chop sideways without a clear trend for several days or even one to two weeks. This type of consolidation can help reset momentum and prepare the chart for a stronger move later.

If you are following XRP closely, you might also be interested in our deeper dive into its long-term potential in this XRP price target analysis.

Solana: strong trend, but stuck at major resistance

Solana (SOL) has made a notable structural shift on higher timeframes. On the 3-day chart, SOL is forming higher highs and higher lows, supported by a large bullish divergence that has already played out. This is a clear change from the persistent downtrend seen through much of the previous bear market.

Right now, however, SOL is repeatedly struggling with a strong resistance zone around $105. Price has tested this area multiple times and seen smaller rejections, indicating that sellers are still active there.

The good news is that on the daily chart, a previous resistance zone between about $96 and $99 has been successfully flipped into support. As long as SOL holds above the high-$90s, its structure remains bullish.

In the coming days, the most likely pattern is:

• Sideways or mildly corrective action between roughly $96–$105
• Continued cooling of the RSI from previously overbought levels
• A potential future attempt to break and hold above $105 once momentum recharges

Chainlink: major resistance at $12 still in play

Chainlink (LINK) is showing one of the cleaner bullish structures among large-cap altcoins on the 3-day chart. A significant bullish divergence remains active, and price has been printing higher highs and higher lows.

However, LINK recently hit a major resistance zone around $12, an area that was highlighted as a key target once price broke above $10. This resistance band roughly spans from $11.80 to $12.30 and has so far rejected price attempts to move higher.

At the same time, the 3-day RSI pushed into overbought territory, reinforcing the idea that LINK needs time to consolidate. Over the next few days to a couple of weeks, expect:

• Continued struggle around the $12 resistance region
• Sideways or slightly corrective price action to reset momentum
• No clear sign of a major crash, but a pause in strong bullish moves

If LINK can eventually break and hold above the $12 area, the next notable upside target based on prior price action sits just above $14, around $14.10–$14.30. That zone would likely act as the next strong resistance if the uptrend resumes.

Putting it all together: short-term caution, long-term optimism

Across Bitcoin and major altcoins, the message from the charts is fairly consistent:

• Higher timeframes (weekly and 3-day) are turning or remain bullish, with clear signs of trend reversals from the bear market
• Shorter timeframes (daily and 4-hour) are signaling overbought conditions and bearish divergences, especially on Bitcoin
• Key resistance zones are being tested, while ETF inflows show strong real demand for BTC

In practical terms, that means the next few days to a couple of weeks could be dominated by consolidation or modest pullbacks rather than explosive moves. At the same time, the broader backdrop of strong ETF buying and improving long-term chart structure supports a constructive outlook over the coming months.

For traders and investors, this is a time to respect short-term warning signals and key levels, while keeping the larger bullish context in mind. If you want more detailed level-by-level strategies for this kind of environment, our earlier piece on Bitcoin warning confirmations and trading plans for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and LINK is a useful next read.