Why Raoul Pal thinks a $100T crypto tsunami is coming

Crypto isn’t just going through another bull run. If Raoul Pal is right, it’s sitting at the center of the biggest economic and technological shift in modern history – one that could push digital assets from a $2.5 trillion market to $100 trillion over the next decade.

In this guide, we’ll unpack Pal’s thesis in plain English: how AI agents, tokenized data, and a new macro regime could reshape finance, what that means for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and why he believes selling too early is the biggest mistake investors can make.

The new economic engine: compute and energy, not labor and capital

Pal and macro analyst Julian Bidd argue that the global economy is moving away from the old model built on labor and physical capital. Instead, the new foundation is compute (processing power) and energy.

In this world, value is created less by humans clocking in and more by AI, robots, and autonomous software agents running 24/7 on massive data centers. The more compute you can access, the more intelligence, automation, and productivity you can unlock.

That shift has two huge consequences:

First, demand for chips, data centers, and electricity explodes. Pal points to companies like Anthropic, which reportedly scaled from zero to massive revenues in just a few years, as a sign of how fast AI demand is compounding. This is Jevons’ paradox in action: as compute gets cheaper and more powerful, we don’t use less of it – we use far more.

Second, the financial system needs new rails to move value at the speed and scale of machines, not humans. That’s where crypto comes in.

Why Pal thinks crypto is the core infrastructure of the AI era

Most traditional analysts still treat Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market as speculative “risk assets” that simply rise and fall with liquidity cycles. Pal’s view is very different.

He sees crypto as the base financial layer for this new compute-and-energy economy. Instead of just being another asset class, blockchains become the settlement, coordination, and ownership layer for AI agents, robots, and digital organizations.

In this framing:

• Bitcoin and other hard-money assets act as long-term stores of value and collateral.
• Ethereum and smart contract platforms act as programmable settlement layers where agents can transact, borrow, lend, and coordinate without human intermediaries.
• Tokens represent everything from data access to ownership in AI-driven projects and networks.

Pal’s conclusion: if this thesis is right, crypto isn’t just riding a cyclical boom – it’s plugged into a structural, multi-decade transformation.

AI agents and the end of traditional finance as we know it

One of the most radical parts of Pal’s vision is the rise of AI “agents” – autonomous software entities that can make decisions, trade, negotiate, and run businesses on their own.

He argues that much of what financial institutions do today can be replaced by agents:

• Hedge fund pods that research markets and trade capital.
• Central “motherships” that handle risk, compliance, and capital allocation.
• Even complex coordination between multiple firms and regulators.

Pal believes that by around 2030, our current idea of what a bank, hedge fund, or asset manager looks like may simply crumble. Instead, you could have:

• AI agents spinning up tokenized business opportunities that exist for a month, capture a niche opportunity, then wind down.
• Capital flowing directly into these tokenized projects without needing to build full human organizations with offices, HR, and legal teams.
• Velocity of capital going “wild” as agents discover, price, and fund opportunities at machine speed.

In this world, humans are no longer at the center of finance. We’re participants at the edges, while agents do most of the heavy lifting.

Tokenization of everything: why the TAM might be “infinity”

Pal leans on an idea from fintech investor Mickey K. Bhalia about “token factories” and reframes tokenization in a broader sense. In AI, tokenization already means breaking information into machine-readable chunks. Pal extends this to the entire data universe.

His argument:

• To move from today’s AI to artificial superintelligence, systems will need access to staggering amounts of data.
• Every privately held piece of data on Earth becomes a potential input – and therefore a potential asset.
• That data will be stripped, structured, and “tokenized” so agents and AI systems can access, trade, and pay for it.

Over time, this could mean:

• Data marketplaces that dwarf today’s stock and commodity markets – but are invisible to humans because agents handle everything.
• Individuals and organizations monetizing their data streams directly via tokens and smart contracts.
• A world where the total addressable market (TAM) for tokenized assets is effectively “infinity,” because any data that creates economic value can be priced and traded.

In that context, crypto tokens aren’t just speculative chips – they’re the native instruments of a machine-run data economy.

The macro backdrop: a deliberate, inflationary reset

Pal also ties this technological shift to a deliberate macro and geopolitical strategy. In his view, policymakers are quietly engineering a new regime that echoes the post–World War II period, when large sovereign debts were inflated away over time.

Key elements of his thesis include:

• A political environment led by “tech accelerationists” who want to push AI and digital infrastructure as fast as possible.
• A coordinated crypto lobby and regulatory clarity efforts to legitimize digital assets as part of the financial system.
• High-level diplomatic moves involving US and Chinese tech leaders to keep Taiwan off the battlefield, secure chip supply chains, and maintain the AI race.

Under this regime, Pal expects:

• The US dollar to be intentionally weakened to provide global liquidity.
• Inflation to be used as a tool to erode the real value of government debt.
• Massive capital flows into AI, chips, energy infrastructure, and the digital asset rails that support them.

He believes there’s a tight political timeline – much of this has to be set in motion before the next US midterm elections, or the strategy risks being derailed.

From cycles to a potential crypto super cycle

Pal and Bidd still track liquidity data and market cycles, but they think we may be in the middle of something bigger than a typical boom-and-bust.

They argue that this crypto cycle could:

• Be extended by a series of reinforcing macro events – such as China tech deals, easing oil prices from Iran negotiations, and a weaker dollar policy.
• Avoid the classic brutal “winter” if liquidity remains structurally supportive and AI-driven demand for compute and capital keeps compounding.
• Evolve into a super cycle where pullbacks happen, but the long-term trend remains strongly up as the new infrastructure build-out continues.

Within this framework, the digital asset market cap climbing from $2.5 trillion to $100 trillion over a decade is not a wild moonshot, but a reflection of crypto absorbing a growing share of global value.

Why Pal says “don’t sell” unless you absolutely have to

Given this backdrop, Pal’s strongest message is about behavior: short-term, emotional selling is, in his words, a grave strategic error.

His reasoning:

• If crypto is the core financial layer of a new AI- and data-driven economy, the main risk isn’t a 50–70% drawdown – it’s being out of the market when the long-term compounding happens.
• Trying to time every wave means you’re likely to miss the biggest moves, especially if a super cycle reduces the depth and length of traditional bear markets.
• The thesis is generational. Selling out completely to catch a top is, in his view, misaligned with the scale of the opportunity.

Pal’s personal approach is simple: don’t sell digital assets unless it’s absolutely necessary. That doesn’t mean never taking profits or never rebalancing, but it does mean treating core positions as long-term ownership in the future infrastructure of the economy.

Why he believes “you just need to own tokens”

Looking beyond 2030–2035, Pal admits that nobody really knows what money, value, or even “markets” will look like in a world dominated by AI agents and tokenized data.

He raises questions like:

• What is equity if traditional financial markets are largely automated or restructured?
• Who “owns” capital when agents are superior allocators and can coordinate directly on-chain?
• Does capital even function the way we understand it today if superintelligent systems are optimizing everything?

Despite that uncertainty, he lands on one clear conviction: owning crypto tokens is the cleanest way for humans to economically participate in this new system.

Why?

• Tokens directly capture the value of the underlying networks – whether that’s a smart contract platform, a data marketplace, or a culture-driven ecosystem.
• They’re natively compatible with agents, smart contracts, and automated coordination.
• They don’t rely on legacy market structures that may not survive the transition.

For readers interested in how other networks are positioning themselves for this kind of future, it’s worth looking at debates around scalability and value capture in projects like Cardano; for example, see this deep dive into Cardano’s governance struggles.

Ethereum, digital art, and culture as “double convex” bets

Pal doesn’t think Ethereum is the only answer, but he does see it as a logical base layer for much of this activity. As a programmable, widely adopted smart contract platform, ETH can serve as:

• A base currency for on-chain economies.
• The settlement layer for AI agents, DeFi protocols, and tokenized data markets.
• The native currency for many cultural and creative assets.

That last point is key to another part of his strategy: digital art.

Pal argues that:

• Humans will still crave meaning, stories, and culture in an AI-saturated world.
• Culture is “the most human thing we have,” and digital art is a direct expression of our times.
• High-quality digital art on Ethereum benefits from a “double convexity”: the art itself can appreciate over time, and it’s priced in ETH, which may also rise in value.

In other words, if both the asset (the artwork) and the currency (ETH) gain value, the returns can compound. This cultural angle also echoes broader debates about how crypto intersects with identity, memes, and narrative – themes that have surfaced in everything from Bitcoin’s evolving role to speculative discussions about assets like XRP, as explored in this analysis of XRP’s long-term potential.

What this means for individual investors

You don’t need to agree with every part of Pal’s thesis to take away some practical lessons:

• Think in decades, not months: If crypto really is the financial layer of a new AI/data economy, the biggest gains are likely to come from staying exposed through multiple cycles, not perfectly timing entries and exits.
• Focus on core networks and clear use cases: Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, plus tokens that directly benefit from AI, data, or cultural adoption, may be better aligned with this thesis than purely speculative plays.
• Expect volatility, but anchor to the big picture: Drawdowns are almost guaranteed, but Pal’s view is that the structural trend could still be up if the macro and technological pieces fall into place.
• Own what agents will use: Tokens that are natively usable by AI agents, DeFi protocols, and on-chain organizations may have a structural advantage.

Most importantly, Pal’s warning is less about an imminent crash and more about a different kind of risk: selling out of a generational opportunity too early because you’re focused on short-term waves instead of the underlying tsunami.