What XRP still needs while Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto show classic bottom signals

Crypto markets have spent the last couple of weeks grinding sideways after a brutal round of liquidations. Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total market cap are all showing the same technical and on-chain signs that have marked previous bear market lows. Yet XRP is lagging on one important metric, and that could matter for how its bottom ultimately forms.

Where the crypto market stands now

At the time discussed, XRP was trading around $1.24, while Bitcoin hovered near $66,500 and total crypto market cap sat close to $2.26 trillion. This follows a period of back-to-back $1 billion+ liquidations that washed out overleveraged positions across the board.

Since then, price action has calmed down. Many altcoins have started to diverge from each other: some are bouncing strongly, others are still stuck in the mud. One standout is Hyperliquid, which has already pushed to new all-time highs after rebounding from the February and May capitulations.

Stellar (XLM), often watched by XRP holders, has also held up relatively well, bouncing hard off the February washout and maintaining higher levels. XRP, by contrast, has been more stagnant, still hovering near its lows.

Classic bottom signals on Bitcoin and Ethereum

Despite the choppy feel, several big-picture signals suggest the broader crypto market may have already completed its bear market.

The 300-week moving average test

The total crypto market cap has dropped back toward its long-term moving averages, including the 300-week moving average. Historically, major cycle lows have formed when the market cap revisits this deep support area. A similar touch happened after the FTX collapse in 2022, which marked the end of that bear market.

This kind of long-term moving average test is one of the signals often associated with major Bitcoin bear market bottoms, as explored in more detail in this look at Bitcoin’s on-chain bottom signal.

On-chain losses have hit historic levels

On-chain data tracks how many coins are currently held at a loss compared to their purchase price. At major Bitcoin bottoms in the past decade, around 10.5 million BTC have typically been in a loss. That level was hit:

• During the 2018–2019 bottom
• Around the FTX collapse in late 2022
• Again in the recent washout, with roughly 10.47–10.5 million BTC in loss

Ethereum shows a similar pattern. Around the post-FTX bottom, roughly 54 million ETH were in loss. In the recent downturn, Ethereum’s on-chain losses again climbed to that same 54 million range.

These repeating levels create a simple, data-driven rule of thumb:

• If Bitcoin hits ~10.5 million coins in loss, that has historically aligned with a bear market bottom.
• If Ethereum hits ~54 million coins in loss, that has also aligned with a bear market bottom.

Both of those thresholds have now been reached again.

Macro conditions are more supportive this time

What makes this setup even more interesting is that macro markets are not in crisis. In 2022, stocks were also depressed, which helped keep crypto pinned down for longer. Today, the picture is very different:

• The Russell 2000 (small caps) is breaking out, a sign of broad risk-on appetite.
• The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all pushing higher, with some indices at or near all-time highs.
• Key tech and software indices have already swept their correction lows and started to build new ranges higher.

When you combine a strong stock market with Bitcoin and Ethereum hitting their traditional on-chain bottom levels, it opens the door to a faster recovery than in previous cycles. This broader context is similar to what other analysts have flagged as a rare potential bottom setup, like the conditions discussed in this analysis of crypto’s rare bottom signal.

The missing piece: XRP’s on-chain losses

So where does XRP fit into this picture? On-chain, XRP has its own historical pattern of losses that have coincided with major lows.

In past bear markets, XRP bottoms have tended to form when roughly 43–45 billion XRP were held at a loss. For example:

• One prior bottom saw about 43.4 billion XRP in loss.
• Another bottom came with around 42.3 billion XRP in loss.
• The 2020–2021 cycle low region saw about 45 billion XRP in loss.

In the recent downturn, XRP’s losses climbed to around 40.5 billion coins in loss. That is high enough that more XRP is in loss than in profit, which is a necessary condition for a major bottom—but it is still shy of the 43–45 billion range that has historically marked the true lows.

Using the same simple rule-of-thumb logic:

• If XRP hits ~43 billion coins in loss, that has historically aligned with a bear market bottom.
• Right now, XRP is around 40.5 billion coins in loss—close, but not quite there.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP has not yet reached its usual on-chain loss threshold. That leaves an open question: is 40.5 billion “good enough” this time, or does XRP still need one more leg down to fully reset?

Could XRP still see one more shakeout?

From a chart-structure perspective, there is a plausible path where XRP dips once more to complete its on-chain pattern.

In the previous cycle, Cardano (ADA) provided a useful template. After losing a key Fibonacci support level, ADA broke down sharply, then staged a “throwback” rally back under former support before rolling over to a new low. That final low coincided with a deeper washout in on-chain losses.

By contrast, during that same period:

• Ethereum held its post-FTX floor and did not make a new low.
• BNB also maintained its key support zone.
• XRP held its floor after FTX and did not break down in the same way ADA did.

In other words, even when the broader market had already printed its key bottom signals, an individual altcoin like ADA could still suffer a delayed “pain trade” while majors and other large caps held up.

Translating that idea to today, XRP’s current structure could allow for a similar throwback-and-dip pattern. A final move lower would likely be emotionally painful—especially if other coins are already recovering—but it would also be the kind of move that could push on-chain losses from ~40.5 billion closer to the historical 43+ billion range.

That scenario is not guaranteed. There is no rule that XRP must hit exactly 43 billion coins in loss. But because that level has mattered in the past, it is a risk worth acknowledging rather than ignoring.

Why realistic expectations matter for XRP holders

It’s easy to find wild XRP price targets and instant-moon narratives. They get clicks because they tell people what they want to hear. The more useful approach, however, is to anchor expectations to data and patterns we can actually observe.

Right now, the data says:

• Bitcoin and Ethereum have hit their classic on-chain loss thresholds that have aligned with past bear market bottoms.
• The total crypto market cap has revisited deep long-term support, similar to prior cycle lows.
• Macro markets are supportive, with risk assets broadly moving higher.
• XRP has met the minimum condition of having more holders in loss than in profit, but has not yet reached the deeper loss levels that have historically marked its own cycle lows.

That combination creates two realistic paths for XRP:

1. XRP has already bottomed slightly above its historical loss threshold and can recover alongside the rest of the market.
2. XRP still has one more shakeout ahead, pushing losses higher and finally matching its usual bottom pattern, before joining a broader bull market.

Both paths are compatible with a constructive long-term outlook. The difference is mainly in the short-term pain and timing.

A measured approach to accumulation

Given this uncertainty, a gradual, rules-based accumulation strategy can help manage risk and emotions. Instead of trying to perfectly time the absolute bottom, some traders choose to:

• Deploy an initial chunk of capital when the broader market hits major bottom signals (like Bitcoin and Ethereum’s on-chain levels).
• Then continue adding small, fixed percentages daily or weekly as long as prices remain depressed.

This kind of dollar-cost averaging approach accepts that you might not buy the exact low, but you also avoid sitting out entirely if the market turns up faster than expected. It also helps you stay mentally prepared for both scenarios: a surprise breakout or a final washout.

Looking ahead: from fear to greed

Historically, bull markets do not start during euphoria. They begin when sentiment is washed out, fear is high, and most people have tuned out. That’s exactly when on-chain loss metrics tend to spike and long-term moving averages get tested.

With Bitcoin and Ethereum already hitting their historical loss levels, and macro markets in a strong position, the odds favor the crypto market shifting from fear back toward greed over the coming months. Whether XRP needs one more dip to finalize its own on-chain picture or not, the broader setup looks much healthier than it feels in the moment.

For those who remain engaged, study the data, and manage risk thoughtfully, this phase often turns out—looking back—to have been one of the most rewarding times to pay attention.