Are whales setting up a new price era for XRP and XLM?

While many retail investors are growing impatient and rotating into hot trends like AI stocks, large institutions and crypto whales are quietly doing the opposite. On-chain data shows significant accumulation of XRP, XLM, and bitcoin by big players, even as smaller wallets sell into recent price moves. Understanding this behavior – and where we are in the market cycle – can help you decide whether this is a time to panic or a time to accumulate.

Whales and institutions are buying XRP, XLM, and bitcoin

Recent activity from major financial firms and on-chain data paints a clear picture: big money is moving into key crypto assets while prices are still under pressure.

For example, Franklin Templeton clients recently bought around $5.66 million worth of XRP. At the same time, other large institutions such as Fidelity have been adding to their bitcoin positions, with one recent purchase around $23 million in BTC.

On-chain analytics platforms are also picking up this trend. Over the last five weeks, XRP wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million XRP have increased their holdings by about 2.8%. These are whale- and institution-sized wallets, not small traders. Meanwhile, the smallest XRP wallets – those holding tiny amounts – have reduced their balances by more than 5% over the same period.

This divergence between large and small holders is not new in crypto, but it tends to appear at important turning points in the market cycle.

Retail is selling into weakness – again

Many smaller investors are reacting emotionally to recent volatility. After a short-term pump in XRP, a lot of retail wallets sold into the move, locking in small gains or cutting losses. This is happening while whales are steadily accumulating more coins.

This pattern – retail dumping while institutions and whales buy – has played out in previous bear markets. Historically, it has often signaled that prices are approaching a major bottom or at least entering a late-stage accumulation zone. The uncomfortable truth of markets is that a small group of informed, patient participants tends to buy when sentiment is worst, while a much larger group sells out of fear or frustration.

That doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does suggest that the current environment may be offering long-term entries rather than long-term exits.

Why moving averages matter for spotting cycle lows

One of the simplest tools used by long-term investors is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). This indicator smooths out price over roughly four years and has historically marked deep value zones for major crypto assets.

Looking at bitcoin as an example, every time BTC has traded below its 200-week SMA – such as in 2018, 2020, and 2022 – it has turned out to be one of the best long-term buying opportunities. In 2022, bitcoin briefly traded around $16,000 while below this line, a level that looks extremely cheap in hindsight whenever the next bull cycle gets going.

Recently, bitcoin again dipped under the 200-week SMA when it fell to around $59,000. That move attracted institutional buyers who view these levels as long-term value, not as the end of the asset.

Where XRP stands in the current cycle

The same 200-week SMA concept can be applied to XRP. In the last bear market, XRP spent a long stretch trading below this key moving average. That period, in retrospect, was the best time to accumulate for investors who believed in XRP’s long-term role in cross-border payments and institutional settlement.

Today, XRP is once again trading below its 200-week SMA, and price action looks similar to the last extended accumulation phase. After a euphoric peak above $3, XRP crashed, then spent more than a year and a half moving mostly sideways. We appear to be in a comparable sideways “basing” zone now, where price is choppy, sentiment is low, and many investors are simply bored or discouraged.

This is exactly the kind of environment where patient capital tends to accumulate. Large holders are not chasing green candles; they are buying when the chart looks flat and social media interest is fading.

If you want a deeper dive into how realistic extreme XRP price targets are, it’s worth comparing these accumulation signals with more grounded analysis in this look at whether a $2,000 XRP price is real or just hype.

Why institutions care about XRP and XLM infrastructure

Part of the institutional interest in XRP and XLM isn’t just price speculation – it’s about infrastructure. Both networks are being used or explored for real-world financial applications, including tokenized assets and settlement rails.

Stellar (XLM), for example, has been linked to initiatives involving the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation), which handles a huge share of traditional stock settlement. The idea is to use tokenization and blockchain rails to settle stock trades, real estate, and other assets more efficiently. This kind of experimentation is one reason some institutions are quietly building positions in XLM despite short-term price weakness. You can see this dynamic in more detail in our breakdown of why Stellar’s price looks weak while its on-chain growth is strong.

XRP is following a similar path, with a focus on cross-border payments, liquidity provision, and potential roles in tokenized finance. Other networks like HBAR and various tokenization projects are also competing in this space. There won’t be a single winner, but the protocols that actually power large-scale financial infrastructure are likely to be the long-term survivors.

AI hype vs. crypto accumulation

At the same time that crypto sentiment has cooled, AI-related stocks and projects have gone through a massive hype cycle. Some investors have sold their crypto holdings – including XRP, XLM, and bitcoin – to chase AI gains after seeing huge moves in that sector.

While AI is a real technological shift and will likely produce long-term winners, bubbles tend to form when everyone crowds into the same trade. When those bubbles deflate, capital often rotates into other undervalued areas. If AI valuations correct sharply, some of that profit-taking capital may look for the next opportunity, and crypto – especially beaten-down, infrastructure-focused assets – is a natural candidate.

Institutions seem to be positioning ahead of that potential rotation by accumulating crypto now, rather than waiting for the next wave of retail FOMO.

Regulatory uncertainty and the “Clarity Act”

One major overhang for the crypto market is regulation. A proposed “Clarity Act” (or similar regulatory frameworks) could define how different digital assets are treated under securities and commodities laws. At the moment, there’s less than a 50% chance of such legislation passing this year, and that uncertainty can weigh on prices in the short term.

If regulation comes in harsher than expected, it could push prices lower and extend the accumulation phase. On the other hand, clear and reasonable rules could unlock a new wave of institutional participation. Either way, many large players are continuing to build and invest in crypto infrastructure regardless of the near-term regulatory noise, which suggests they are thinking in multi-year timeframes, not weeks or months.

What this could mean for future prices

No one can guarantee a specific price target for XRP, XLM, or bitcoin, and extreme predictions like “$1,000+ per coin” should always be treated with caution. What the current data does suggest, however, is that we are in a classic late-bear or early-accumulation phase:

• Prices are below long-term moving averages that have historically marked value zones.
• Retail investors are selling or rotating into trendier sectors.
• Whales and institutions are quietly increasing their holdings.
• Real-world infrastructure and tokenization projects are being built on top of these networks.

If the next bull cycle plays out anything like previous ones, assets accumulated in these zones often see outsized returns when sentiment flips and new capital floods back into the market. That doesn’t mean you should go all-in or ignore risk, but it does suggest that this period may look very different in hindsight than it feels in the moment.

Staying level-headed in an accumulation market

For individual investors, the key challenge is emotional, not technical. It’s hard to stay patient when prices move sideways for months, headlines focus on other sectors, and your portfolio feels stuck. That’s often when people capitulate – selling long-term positions at a discount to chase whatever is currently in the spotlight.

A more disciplined approach is to understand where we are in the cycle, decide which assets you genuinely believe have long-term utility, and then build or hold positions according to your own risk tolerance and time horizon. Tools like moving averages and on-chain data can help you see what the “smart money” is doing, but they don’t remove risk. Diversification, position sizing, and independent research still matter.

Most importantly, remember that nothing in this article is financial advice. Markets are unpredictable, and even strong historical patterns can fail. But if the past three crypto cycles are any guide, the period when everyone is bored, frustrated, or distracted is often when the foundations of the next bull run are quietly being laid.